Hurricane center says 90% chance tropical system will form, forecasts show swing back to Florida

ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center began advisories Wednesday on a system it forecasts to become the season’s next tropical depression or storm. Long-range forecast models predict it will intensify into a hurricane and threaten Florida by the middle of next week.

As of 4 p.m. Eastern time what the NHC is calling Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen was located about 460 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras and 290 miles east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border moving west at 6 mph and maximum sustained winds of 30 mph.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Punta Castilla, Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border and tropical storm watch from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.

“On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the western Caribbean Sea and slow as it nears the coast of Central America,” forecasters said. “Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening as it moves near the coast of Central America.”

The NHC gives it a 90% chance to develop in the next two to seven days, and it now forecast to become Tropical Storm Sara.

The NHC said 10 to 20 inches with some areas would get 30 inches of rain over northern Honduras. Up to 15 inches could also fall across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua. The system is also expected to dump rain on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

It’s where the storm will go afterward, that should concern Florida. That begins with a sharp turn to the northwest heading toward Mexico’s Yucutan peninsula and then possibly into the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC forecasts of the projected path only go out five days.

But after it became Invest 99-L on Tuesday, longer-term forecast models that look beyond seven days kicked in. The majority of those show initially showed it could intensify to hurricane strength as it moved back east across the Gulf of Mexico and potentially striking Florida.

The models’ intensity range as of Wednesday morning varies with some expecting it to approach major hurricane strength as it approaches the Florida peninsula.

Several of the model paths range from the Big Bend area down to South Florida nearing the coast Tuesday and making landfall on Wednesday.

If it does turn and strike Florida, it could become the fourth named storm to hit the state’s Gulf Coast this hurricane season following hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 17 named storms so far, 11 of which became hurricanes, with five of those growing into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or stronger.

The season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

_____