Ecuador's election hinges on indigenous voters torn between security, economy

Just 17,000 votes separated the top two candidates in the first round of Ecuador’s presidential election. A third contender raked in half a million votes, meaning supporters of his Indigenous and environmentalist party will be a deciding factor in this weekend’s runoff.

Final polling ahead of the April 13 vote showed socialist challenger Luisa González, a lawyer and protege of former President Rafael Correa, running neck-and-neck with incumbent Daniel Noboa, the millennial heir to a banana fortune. Markets are poised to rally if Noboa can eke out a win, while bonds may be nearing a bottom as traders have priced in a González victory.

That means residents of places like Santa Catalina, an Andean hamlet in the foothills of the ice-capped Chimborazo volcano, will cause ripple effects far beyond Ecuador’s borders when they cast their votes. While they care about national issues including migration and crime, their local and personal concerns could also end up deciding the election.

Heavy seasonal rains have greened Santa Catalina’s fields to the extent that farmers are covering newborn calves with plastic-coated sacks to shield them from the weather. But irrigation during dry spells remains a top concern. At a recent community meeting, the gathering of about 20 women and men also mentioned education, public health and unemployment as major issues.

González is promising a return to freewheeling public spending and has pledged to recognize Nicolás Maduro as president of Venezuela. Noboa, meanwhile, vows to press ahead with an internal war on violent drug gangs, pursue more market-friendly reforms and push for closer U.S. ties.

“I for one don’t want to turn back to what Venezuela is like now,” said María Cahuana, adding that democracy and freedom of speech must survive in Ecuador. Her neighbor Estuardo Espinosa agreed, saying that regardless of Noboa’s mistakes, he doesn’t want Correa governing through González by proxy.

Leonidas Iza, who came in third in the first round as a candidate for the Pachakutik party, is backing González after she signed an accord with the group to overcome many Indigenous concerns with her party, Revolución Ciudadana. And a YouGov survey commissioned by the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research suggests most Ecuadorians don’t think their economic or security situations have improved since Noboa won a 2023 snap election brought on by a political crisis.

Based on current bond pricing, traders see a 72% chance of a González victory, according to EMFI Group strategists Guillermo Guerrero, Valeria Garcés Padilla and Matías Montes. But that’s higher than the 45% chance the firm, which has a buy recommendation on the bonds, is assigning to that scenario.

Ecuador’s dollar bonds have plunged since González forced a runoff on Feb. 9. Holders have taken losses of nearly 30% since then, and the securities are the worst performers in emerging markets this year, data compiled for a Bloomberg index shows. Sovereign notes due in 2035 are trading at about 44 cents on the dollar, having fallen more than 20 cents since the first-round vote.

“The bonds are trading as if it is almost a certainty that González wins and there will be a default,” Guerrero said. “So downside is already realized and if Noboa wins we see significant upside,” with bonds potentially rallying to as high as 80 cents.

While no specific polling of Indigenous voters exists, Javier Rodríguez, a U.S.-based Ecuadorian sociologist, has reviewed voting data in detail. Iza won the bulk of his votes in the central Andes and in Quito. Considering recent trends and first-round performance, “the slight advantage — not by much — would be taken by Daniel Noboa” when combining those two areas, Rodríguez said via telephone.

Even as Ecuador harbors nearly half a million Venezuelan refugees, lack of opportunities to study and work have pushed tens of thousands to emigrate, paying human traffickers on the way. “It breaks my heart,” said Andrea Yumi.

A Santa Catalina resident, she added that she was undecided about her vote but leaning toward González due to allegations that Noboa’s family corporation has avoided income tax. He said during a campaign debate that the decision to compel the company to repay isn’t up to him, but rather the Ecuadorian authorities.

Yumi’s sister María said she voted for González given that she identified with her as a woman. In their district, Noboa won 54.4% in the first round compared to 19.8% for González with Iza at 18.1%.

While Iza led violent Indigenous revolts that put market-friendly presidents on the ropes in 2019 and 2022, Pachakutik also has a checkered history with Correa. It supported the leftist leader early in his decade-long administration, only to break with him over repression and oil and mining policies.

González pledged to support 25 Pachakutik demands at a ceremony with party leader Guillermo Churuchumbi on March 30. Iza didn’t attend, sending a video message instead, after Correa sniped at him in an interview earlier in the campaign. “That wasn’t exactly helpful,” Indigenous activist Floresmilo Simbaña said in Quito, the capital.

María Cuchipe, a flower worker from Guantualó, was one of Iza’s 538,000 voters. Her village is near a famous hiking route called the Quilotoa Loop, around which his core rural supporters live and near where Correa once spent a year as a social worker. “I voted for Iza because we’re Indigenous,” she said after her shift at Sapphire Roses in Pastocalle, in the shadow of another glacier-capped volcano, Cotopaxi, where most workers preferred Noboa.

While she’s undecided for the runoff, she said she’s a fan of Cotopaxi provincial Prefect Lourdes Tibán — a longtime Pachakutik critic of Correa. Cuchipe rents an apartment in Latacunga, the provincial capital, to commute to her work at the rose farm, and travels to support her elderly parents in the village on weekends and also votes there. In her polling station, Iza won 54.2%, González 28.3%, and Noboa just 12.5%.

Voters who backed Iza in the first round and now favor González flagged the agreement she signed as a key reason. They argued her pledges to renegotiate debt owed to the International Monetary Fund and put a moratorium on mining prove Pachakutik isn’t handing Revolución Ciudadana a blank check.

“We have enormous criticism for RC but at the same time we’re not willing to let Noboa win again, and, above all, there’s an accord” to work against the region’s rightward pivot in general, according to Alejandra Santillana, a non-Indigenous sociologist and activist for anti-oil organization Yasunidos. While the group, like Pachakutik, was pursued by Correa, young people in many parts of the country are disappointed with a lack of progress in the eight years since Ecuador pivoted away from Correa’s model, she added.

Simbaña, the Indigenous activist in Quito, said he was more worried about Noboa’s repressive plans than those González might pursue. The government recently teamed up with Erik Prince, a controversial private defense entrepreneur who founded Blackwater, during a weekend raid by Ecuador’s forces against drug gangs in Guayaquil.

“I think Noboa is the bigger threat, he’s going to have international backing and that makes him the stronger candidate and more dangerous than Correísmo,” Simbaña said.

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With assistance from Zijia Song.