McConnell: Medicaid cuts likely to remain in Senate but not easy to pass

Sen. Mitch McConnell thinks the cuts to Medicaid spending in the wide-ranging budget bill backed by President Donald Trump will remain.

He said to a crowd gathered at a Kentucky Chamber of Commerce event Friday that he supports those entitlement cuts, which reduce 10-year spending on Medicaid by about $723 billion and are estimated to cut about 12% of the government-funded insurance program spend in Kentucky.

“I’m hoping we come out pretty close to where the House did on Medicaid,” McConnell said.

Those cuts are one part of so-called “Big, Beautiful Bill” backed by Trump that was narrowly passed by the U.S. House in May. The bill also extends tax cuts that primarily benefit the wealthy and cuts spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, among other things.

McConnell also made sure to mention how politically difficult it might be for those cuts to Medicaid and other entitlement programs that were present in the U.S. House-approved bill to make it through the Senate. He emphasized that the last major change to entitlements in the U.S. was passed just before his 40-year career in the Senate began.

“Ronald Reagan and (late speaker of the House) Tip O’Neill agreed to raise the age of Social Security from 65 to 67. Since then, there’s been nothing significant done to any entitlement, and the reason for it, obviously, is they are all immensely popular and no matter which side has controlled the government, nothing has happened,” McConnell said.

He also mentioned how he was tasked during the administration of former President George W. Bush with finding Democrats who might support entitlement reform. He recalled the response of one Democrat predicting political doom if they went down that path.

“He said, ‘Well, you guys have got the White House, you’ve got the House, you’ve got the Senate. Go right ahead,’” McConnell recalled.

“You know what he meant: We’ll see you in the next election.”

McConnell did not say whether or not he thought the provisions making changes to entitlements aimed at benefiting low-income Americans would make it through the Senate, though the cuts are a key part of financing the tax cut extension.

He did make it clear that he supported the general direction of the cuts, though, citing conversations he’s had with Kentucky health care providers, many of whom rely on Medicaid.

“We’ve checked with health care providers and state government, and they’re comfortable with the way that issue is dealt with in the House bill and (by Kentucky) Congressman (Brett) Guthrie, who was directly involved in it. I’m interested in how those who could potentially be affected by and feel about it, and they seem to be OK,” McConnell said.

The proposed changes to Medicaid that would lead to the cuts include mandating that adults getting Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act expansion meet certain work requirements and repealing a Biden-era rule simplifying the eligibility and renewal process, among other changes.

One part of the big bill that McConnell felt confident would make it through: the extension of the tax cuts.

McConnell said he’s “almost certain” those cuts to the individual income tax rate will remain.

“I think what unifies Republicans the most is the desire to have the lowest tax rate possible, and I think that part of the bill is likely to be very similar in both the House version and what we actually end up passing in the Senate,” McConnell said.

Everything else is up in the air, he indicated.

“There are a lot of other things that I’m not going to get into because we don’t know now what the final verdict is, but I do think this bill will pass in some form. I think you’ll like most of it,” McConnell said.

McConnell was not entirely supportive of the president’s agenda in other areas.

As he’s expressed previously, Kentucky’s senior senator disapproved of actions Trump has taken on tariffs, noting that the commonwealth would be uniquely affected.

“We ought to be doing more trade agreements, rather than attacking our friends with tariffs,” he said. “Hopefully the president will give up on this path and remember that free trade is very, very important.”

Another hobby horse of McConnell’s has been aid to Ukraine, which has totaled more than $180 billion over the course of the country’s defense against invasion from Russia, according to the U.S. Department of Defense.

He warned against the plans of the United States’ ostensible enemies like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

“What they want to do is displace American leadership with Chinese leadership or a combination or Russia or China,” McConnell said. “We need to be leading our allies around the world with free trade.”

The longtime politician and political junkie also had some thoughts to share about a Kentucky congressional seat that will be left open as a downstream effect of his choice not to seek reelection in 2026.

McConnell told reporters after the event that he believed the Central Kentucky-based 6th Congressional District, which is currently held by Rep. Andy Barr who is now running for Senate, would stay red.

That prediction comes in spite of Lexington, which makes up about 44% of the district, leaning more to the left in recent election cycles.

“Well, there’s a blue spot in the middle of the sixth district, but it looks like most of it is pretty red, and I think whoever comes out of the primary has got a very good chance of winning,” McConnell said.