Hurricane center increases chance system could develop off Florida coast

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jul 3, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center on Thursday upped its prediction a system could form off the coast of Florida and develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

In its 8 a.m. tropical advisory, the NHC said an area of low pressure is forecast to develop by the weekend off the Atlantic coast of the southeast U.S. along a weakening front that was moving into North Florida.

“Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, heavyrainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.”

The NHC gave it a 20% chance of development in the next two days and 60% chance in the next seven. That’s up from 40% forecast Wednesday.

If it were to develop into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Chantal.

The latest forecast models have shifted the low pressure area’s potential development since earlier this week that had it potentially forming off Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Now model guidance has the week low pressure area just off the northeast Florida-Georgia coast with models taking it north to northeast away from the state by early next week, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

“High rain chances are forecast to continue Saturday then decrease Sunday and beyond but only back to more seasonable (climatological) norms of 40-60%,” forecasters said.

Deep moisture over the peninsula because of the stalled front over North Florida, though, means rain chances on Thursday and Friday are much higher with pockets of storms hitting the region, although it won’t be an all-day event.

“Rainfall totals will be 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. While some ponding on roads will occur and one or more Flood Advisories may be needed, most areas will be able to handle this water and a Flood Watch is not anticipated,” forecasters said.

This is the first system of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season that could threaten the U.S.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 13 to 19 named storms this year, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to five of those would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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