Donald Trump’s tariff threat against Brazil over a legal probe into his political ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro, caught the Supreme Court in Brasilia off guard.

The top court is in recess during July — not all its judges were even in the country — making it difficult to convene to formulate a response. But a group of justices including Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the former president’s case, immediately began discussing a response aimed more at asserting national sovereignty than easing tensions with the U.S.

Just after Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Brazil on July 9, this group advocated for the court to issue a statement challenging the U.S. president’s assertion of a “Witch Hunt,” according to two people with knowledge of how the events unfolded. In the end, Chief Justice Luis Roberto Barroso agreed in a call with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva that the first response should come from the political sphere, a third person said, all of them asking not be named discussing private deliberations.

Lula then made the point, in a statement that evening, that Brazil is “a sovereign country with independent institutions.” The reaction was calibrated to underline the division between the executive and the judiciary in Brazil, and how the U.S. demands had overstepped that mark. Yet it also shows a shared determination to fight back rather than give in to his demands that the Bolsonaro case be dropped.

“If there was some expectation that the threats would generate some fear in the Brazilian Supreme Court, the effect is the opposite,” said Thiago de Aragao, head of Arko International, a Washington-based consultancy. “Their willingness to go through this all the way to the end is much higher, especially because they want to demonstrate their sovereignty and independence.”

That reality signals turbulence ahead between Latin America’s economic and political heavyweight helmed by a seasoned leftist leader and an unapologetically mercantilist U.S. under a president who is now largely unfettered by legal constraints. Since then, Trump reiterated his tariff threats in an open letter, Brazil’s top court ordered Bolsonaro to wear an ankle monitor alleging a flight risk, and the U.S. State Department revoked U.S. visas for Moraes and other justices.

Early warnings

It’s a clash of personalities and political cultures that’s been building for some time.

Since early this year, officials from the U.S. embassy in Brasilia had reached out to Brazil’s Supreme Court to warn that the ongoing investigation into whether Bolsonaro had sought to overturn his 2022 election loss threatened to harm trade relations, according to one of the people with knowledge of the conversations.

Brazil’s Supreme Court didn’t reply to a request for comment. The U.S. embassy said it has made clear its “concern about the politicization of the investigations” involving Bolsonaro and his supporters. The issue has been raised “during interactions with Brazilian authorities, for some time now,” according to the July 18 statement issued by the embassy’s press office in Portuguese.

Brazilian justices aware of the advisories initially shrugged them off as absurd. There was no way, they reasoned, the U.S. would intervene in what was ultimately a domestic legal affair, one of the people said.

But if Brazilian judges had underestimated the White House, it quickly became clear that Trump, too, had miscalculated.

To the majority of the court’s members, the Bolsonaro case is part of a larger fight to safeguard a relatively young democracy the former Army captain allegedly put in peril. And unlike the U.S. Supreme Court, which helped clear the way for Trump’s return to power despite charges that he illegally conspired to overturn his 2020 defeat, Brazil’s has no intention of giving in.

The court’s determination is typically ascribed — by supporters and critics alike — to Moraes, the crusading justice overseeing both the coup trial and spearheading an aggressive campaign against social-media disinformation that has also drawn the ire of Trump and members of his movement.

As part of his efforts, the 56-year-old judge has ordered the removal of accounts accused of spreading fake news from platforms like X, Rumble and Meta’s Facebook. He’s clashed with right-wing journalists and commentators who say he’s abusing his power to target political opponents, and last year waged a public tussle with Elon Musk after banning access to X in Brazil.

His prominent role in Brazil’s most high-profile legal fights has turned him into the supervillain of Bolsonaro’s movement: Eduardo Bolsonaro, a son of the former president, has spent months in the U.S. lobbying Washington to put sanctions on the judge. Moraes has declined requests for comment.

US, Brazil parallels

In reality, the majority of the court’s 11 members are united in the belief that they are waging an existential fight for Brazilian democracy — one with implications that stretch far beyond Brazil’s borders.

It’s a view that solidified in the wake of the 2023 insurrection attempt in which thousands of Bolsonaro supporters ransacked major government buildings, including the Supreme Court, the presidential palace and Congress — events that drew natural comparisons to the Capitol riots in Washington that followed Trump’s 2020 defeat. Even the dates were similar: the US rioting came on Jan. 6; Brazil’s attempted coup was Jan. 8.

As clear as the parallels are, the responses from the country’s Supreme Courts couldn’t be much different. The U.S. tribunal ruled in 2024 that Trump enjoyed some immunity from criminal charges over his efforts to overturn the results, effectively killing chances of a trial before last year’s election. His subsequent victory put an end to the case altogether.

“I see Brazil with mechanisms to protect its democracy that are much more efficient than what we’ve seen in the U.S.,” said Robert Dias, a professor of constitutional law at Getulio Vargas Foundation law school in Sao Paulo. “The American constitution only has force when institutional actors are loyal to it.”

Brazil, by contrast, moved swiftly: In 2023, its electoral court — a separate body made up of a rotating cast of Supreme Court justices — barred Bolsonaro from holding office for eight years for spreading voter fraud conspiracies, ending any chance of a swift return to the presidency.

The judicial system has moved similarly rapidly to find the culprits the Jan. 8, 2023, insurrection in Brasilia. Federal police recommended the coup attempt charges in November 2024. Within months, the Supreme Court had approved them and set the stage for a trial.

More outspoken by tradition than their American counterparts, the justices have left little doubt about their motivations: They want to conclude the trial before Brazilians vote again in October 2026.

That has added fuel to claims that they’ve predetermined the outcome and robbed Bolsonaro of due process. But in recent days, judges have pushed back, arguing that their aggressive approach was necessary to avoid the sort of democratic collapse that has happened elsewhere.

“An independent and active court was necessary to prevent the collapse of institutions, as has occurred in several countries around the world, from Eastern Europe to Latin America,” Chief Justice Barroso wrote in a letter published on its website on July 13. “The Supreme Federal Court will judge independently and based on the evidence.”

Despite the July recess, Moraes continued working, and Bolsonaro’s case proceeded as normal. The Prosecutor General’s Office submitted its closing arguments on July 14, requesting his conviction for the attempted coup.

The Supreme Court is expected to return from recess in August and likely to conclude the case soon. What remains uncertain is how far Trump is willing to go to support Bolsonaro.

Eduardo Bolsonaro and conservative digital influencer Paulo Figueiredo, grandson of the last president of the military dictatorship that ruled Brazil from 1964 to 1985, spent the past several days in Washington in meetings at the State Department and, according to them, at the White House.

In a sign of Trump’s unconventional diplomacy, Eduardo and Figueiredo have become key sources of information about Brazil for his administration, according to diplomatic sources.

“Everyone’s position was unanimous: There will not be a millimeter of concession unless Brazil takes the first step,” Figueiredo said Wednesday of the meetings held in Washington. “The warning we heard was: ‘If things continue at this pace, President Trump may take additional measures, which could even involve the financial market.’”

Donald Trump has so far said he won’t back down.

“It is my sincere hope that the Government of Brazil changes course, stops attacking political opponents, and ends their ridiculous censorship regime,” Trump wrote in the letter addressed to Bolsonaro Thursday night. “I will be watching closely.”

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(With assistance from Andrew Rosati.)

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