Hurricane center increases odds system off Florida will develop amid Atlantic upsurge
Published in News & Features
ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday increased the chances an expected low pressure area off the northeast coast of Florida could develop into a tropical depression or storm while keeping an eye on another Atlantic system plus Tropical Storm Dexter.
As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, forecasters expect a weak surface trough off the southeastern United States coast to form into an area of low pressure within a day or two.
“Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this week or weekend as as the low initially moves slowly westward, but turns more northward by this weekend,” forecasters said.
The NHC gave it a 10% chance it could develop in the next two days and 40% that it could develop in the next seven. That’s up from 30% on Monday.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne said a stalled front over north Florida would sink toward Central Florida as it interacts with the low pressure area increasing rain chances Wednesday and Thursday with a forecast 2 inches across the region.
“Onshore flow will likely focus the greatest opportunity for storms over the interior both Wednesday and Thursday, though the closer proximity to the front and additional mid level support may give a boost to precipitation chances everywhere by Thursday,” forecasters said. “Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall will continue to be the main storm threats.”
As the low grows near Georgia and South Carolina along with one in the Gulf, a surface low pressure area could form over Central Florida bringing more rain through Sunday.
“The proximity of these features, plus mid level energy, ample moisture, and daytime heating/instability, will enhance daytime rain and storm chances to 70-80%,” forecasters said.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the outlook remained 50/50 for development of a tropical wave that had moved off the west coast of Africa on Monday but has since grown some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic,” forecasters said,.
The NHC kept the odds at 50% that a system could form in the next seven days.
As far as Tropical Storm Dexter, which formed in the Atlantic on Sunday night, the season’s fourth named storm remained no threat to land.
As of 5 a.m. Tuesday, the center of Dexter was located about 345 miles north of Bermuda moving northeast at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 115 miles.
“A gradual turn toward the east-northeast is expected during the next few days,” forecasters said. “Little change in strength is expected forthe next day or so. Some re-strengthening is forecast in a couple of days as Dexter becomes an extratropical cyclone.”
Dexter became the fourth named storm following tropical storms Andrea, Barry and Chantal.
After Dexter, the next names on the NHC’s list are Erin and Fernand.
Before the start of hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had forecast an expected 13 to 19 named storms for the year, of which 6 to 10 would grow into hurricanes. Three to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.
The entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.
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