What's next in the tropics? 'Spaghetti models' show the future of 2 potential systems

David Schutz and Angie DiMichele, South Florida Sun Sentinel on Aug 21, 2025

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FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Forecasters are tracking two weather systems in the Atlantic that have the potential to form into the next tropical storm in the wake of Hurricane Erin, which is passing east of the U.S. this week.

Do they pose a threat to Florida, the Caribbean or elsewhere in the U.S.? Although the storms are still far away, their threat appears to be minimal, forecasters say.

Spaghetti models are out for one of the systems, which is currently in the eastern Atlantic. Although they show the system potentially tracking into the Caribbean, they also show it fizzling out before it becomes a significant threat.

The closer system has a higher chance of formation but appears to following the same path as Hurricane Erin, north into the open Atlantic.

Here’s what forecasters are saying:

System 1

A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the islands in the eastern Caribbean is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend while it moves near or to the north of those islands, forecasters said early Thursday. It is generally following in the path of Hurricane Erin, with a 70% chance of developing in the next seven days and a 30% chance in the next two days.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands,” which are at the east end of the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said in its Thursday morning advisory.

System 2

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. While it lacks a well-defined center as of early Thursday, a short-lived tropical depression could form within the next day or so, forecasters said.

“Recent satellite-derived wind data depict that the system does not have a well-defined center,” the National Hurricane Center said. “Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so… By the end of the week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable forfurther development.”

The system is expected to move west-southwest at about 15 mph and is unlikely to further develop toward the end of this week, the National Hurricane Center said. It has a 40% chance of developing.

Long term outlook

NOAA’s long-range tropical outlook shows a more quiet period for the rest of August and into the first week of September with low chances of tropical formation in the Atlantic through Sept. 9.

The most historically active period of hurricane season is mid-August through mid-October with the statistical peak falling around Sept. 10.