The American naval force that has deployed off Venezuela’s coast is not designed for occupation. It is built for speed —raids to seize high-value targets, precision strikes to cripple defenses, and, if ordered, to carry out the risky capture of strongman Nicolás Maduro and top regime officials, military analysts say.

The deployment, coupled with the U.S. designating as a terrorist organization the “Carte de los Soles” — a drug trafficking network U.S. officials believe is led by Maduro — underscores the Trump administration’s readiness to move beyond sanctions and diplomacy in defense of what it calls vital national security interests.

“The current U.S. military force assembled in the Caribbean provides the commander with a range of options, up to decisive operations to capture or eliminate even substantially protected Cartel de Los Soles figures,” said Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute.

Beyond diplomacy

In President Donald Trump’s first term, Venezuela was cast as a democracy-restoration project. In his second term, the country has been framed as a direct threat to U.S. security. Washington accuses Maduro of enabling cocaine trafficking, tolerating the violent Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua as it expands into U.S. cities, and fueling migrant surges across the Mexican border.

A reorganized National Security Council and new political appointees have aligned more closely with Trump’s priorities. Analysts say the shift is accelerating decision-making and increasing the likelihood of military action.

“Key administration figures who favored engagement with Maduro, like [Ambassador] Richard Grenell, have seen their influence wane, strengthening the hand of hawks such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio,” Ellis said in an op-ed piece published Friday, “Finally the Endgame in Venezuela?”

The administration has determined that both the Cartel de Los Soles and Tren de Aragua qualify as terrorist organizations, a designation that provides legal support to U.S. actions to neutralize their members and leadership.

A new doctrine

Antonio De La Cruz, executive director of the Washington-based think tank Inter American Trends, said the designation of the Venezuelan cartel as a terrorist group, along with accusations that the Maduro regime has weaponized drug trafficking to harm the United States, has shaped a new approach in Washington’s understanding and management of Venezuela.

“What the administration is saying is that a narco-terrorist gang has taken over the Venezuelan state —whose leaders have open cases for drug trafficking in the Southern District of New York — and that their cocaine shipments, laced with fentanyl, have caused more than 100,000 deaths in America, far more than the 3,000 who died on 9/11,” De La Cruz said.

It’s an argument that frames the Venezuelan regime as using drugs as a weapon of mass destruction — setting the groundwork for Trump to act.

“Secretary Rubio sounded the Maduro regime’s death knell when he forewarned: ‘We are not going to tolerate it,’” De La Cruz added.

In defending Trump’s decision to use deadly force on boats allegedly carrying drugs out of Venezuela, Rubio said that the U.S. government is “not going to sit back anymore” while drug cartels operate in the Caribbean. Following a second strike on a suspected drug vessel, he said the U.S. will use all of its power to target cartels “who are targeting America.”

“Maduro is NOT the President of Venezuela and his regime is NOT the legitimate government. Maduro is the head of the Cartel de los Soles, a narco-terror organization which has taken possession of a country. And he is under indictment for pushing drugs into the United States,” Rubio said earlier on his X account.

The first shots

The lethal strike on a speedboat allegedly tied to the cartel — though highly controversial — was a clear message to Maduro’s inner circle, De La Cruz said.

That strike, which killed 11 people aboard, marked the first U.S. use of deadly force in connection with Venezuelan cartel activities. Three additional strikes on vessels followed, raising the death toll to 17. Officials say the operations are a signal to Caracas: Washington is prepared to act, not just threaten.

Analysts believe the strikes could be the first in a series of limited actions designed to test Maduro’s resolve and lay the groundwork for a larger campaign.

To intensify pressure, the U.S. has placed a $50 million bounty on Maduro — the largest of its kind — and $25 million on several top aides. The aim is to destabilize Maduro’s inner circle and encourage defections.

The strike force

The military formation deployed in the Caribbean reflects the seriousness of U.S. intentions. At its core is a Marine Air-Ground Task Force centered around the amphibious assault vessel USS Iwo Jima and two San Antonio-class transport ships. Together, they carry more than 2,000 Marines trained for rapid operations.

In total, about 4,500 Marines and sailors are deployed, backed by a cruiser, destroyers, and a Los Angeles-class attack submarine equipped with more than 400 missile tubes capable of precision strikes. Ten F-35 stealth fighters have been deployed to Puerto Rico, capable of neutralizing Venezuela’s aging fleet of Sukhoi-30s and F-16s jets. U.S. Marines have conducted joint training exercises on the island, while Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Daniel Caine have made high-profile visits.

This is not a force for nation-building, Ellis argues. It’s a force that can go in, hit hard, and get out.

The strike force has drawn comparisons to the 1989 invasion of Panama, when U.S. forces captured strongman Manuel Noriega and brought him to trial in the U.S. But Venezuela presents a far more complex challenge. The country is larger, with a dense network of militias, paramilitaries and foreign allies. Maduro has fortified his regime with Cuban advisers, Russian weapons and Chinese surveillance technology.

For now, officials say the administration favors a “graduated response” — targeted strikes aimed at testing reactions and encouraging internal defections in Venezuela. The strategy echoes U.S. actions in Iran in 2025, when strikes on nuclear facilities avoided triggering a broader war.

Still, risks abound. Extracting Maduro alive would be perilous, and some in his inner circle may prefer his death to the possibility of captured secrets being exposed under U.S. interrogation.

A fragile aftermath

Analysts warn that Maduro’s removal wouldn’t guarantee a return to democracy. It could unleash a violent power struggle among entrenched criminal networks. For two decades, the regimes of Hugo Chávez and Maduro have tied the state to illicit economies — granting officers, loyalists and gangs access to oil, smuggling routes and drug profits.

The sudden collapse of that system could trigger a violent scramble for territory and resources, destabilizing any transition.

Foreign actors may complicate matters. Russia, China and Cuba have vested interests in Venezuela and may seek to undermine U.S. efforts, sow chaos and prevent a clear American victory.

Still, Venezuela’s opposition sees a rare opportunity. Edmundo González, who claimed victory in the disputed 2024 presidential election with 67% of the vote, is recognized by Washington as the country’s legitimate president. Alongside opposition leader María Corina Machado, he represents a possible democratic alternative.

The U.S. can open the door, but in the end Venezuelans will have to walk through it, analysts warn.

If Maduro falls, any new government will face immediate challenges:

—Restarting oil production and refining capacity

—Managing a $140 billion debt and legal claims

—Rebuilding the military and police while containing armed groups

—Healing a politically fractured nation

A ticking clock

Maintaining such a large naval presence in the Caribbean is expensive, military analysts say. The current posture cannot be sustained indefinitely. Military planners will soon press for a decision: Act, withdraw or extend the standoff.

Maduro appears to be betting that Washington will back down. He has weathered sanctions, coup attempts and international isolation, outlasting adversaries at home and abroad.

But the recent speedboat strikes — the first lethal U.S. actions tied to Venezuelan cartels — has changed the equation.

The months ahead may prove decisive, experts say. For the first time in years, Maduro’s removal by force appears to be a real possibility. But the aftermath is far from clear.

Still, for many Venezuelans, the possibility of change brings hope after decades of authoritarian rule and economic ruin. Whether that hope becomes reality may depend less on U.S. firepower and more on Venezuelans’ ability to rebuild once the smoke clears.

“Victories are never assured, but no tragedy lasts forever,” Ellis said.

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