Hurricane Gabrielle now major hurricane while NHC ups odds on 2 other Atlantic systems
Published in News & Features
Hurricane Gabrielle on Monday rapidly intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane, while the National Hurricane Center increased the chances that two other Atlantic systems could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.
The NHC put out a special 9 a.m. advisory on the sudden growth of Gabrielle, which jumped from 90 mph sustained winds at 5 a.m. to 120 mph sustained winds. The storm is only the second hurricane of the 2025 season.
It was expected to move well clear of Bermuda into the open Atlantic, but two tropical waves farther south could be potential threats, including one that will bring rain to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, both of the Atlantic systems had increased chanced for development. The central tropical Atlantic tropical wave located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles had increased shower and thunderstorm activity since Sunday.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development by Tuesday, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gave it a 30% chance in the next two days and 80% chance to develop in the next seven days.
The second tropical wave was even closer to the Caribbean, about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
“Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph,” forecasters said. “By the latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas.”
The NHC warned gusty winds and showers would hit the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands on Monday night and Tuesday whether it develops or not, with similar conditions in Puerto Rico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 50% in the next seven.
If either were to become a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Humberto. The next name on the list would be Imelda.
As for Hurricane Gabrielle, which grew from a tropical storm on Sunday, as of the NHC’s 11 a.m. update, the storm still had 120 mph sustained winds, keeping it a Category 3 major hurricane. It was located about 180 miles southeast of Bermuda headed north at 10 mph.
Hurricane-force winds extend out 25 miles while tropical-storm-force winds extend out 140 miles from its center.
“This general motion is expected today, followed by a faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda tonight,” forecasters said.
Projections have it growing into a Category 4 major hurricane by Monday night with sustained winds of 130 mph, then dying back down as its path shifts back east into the open Atlantic after passing near Bermuda.
The NHC warned swells from the system continue to threaten Bermuda with potential life-threatening surf and rip conditions. The swells will reach the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward and into Canada starting Sunday and continuing through early this week.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was on Sept. 10, but 60% of annual activity has historically happened after this date, the NHC stated.
The only other hurricane this season has been Hurricane Erin, which grew into a massive Category 5 system with 160 mph winds but remained in the Atlantic without making landfall.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in early August updated its season forecast to call for 13-18 named storms this year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
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