Hurricane center ups odds Atlantic tropical depression will form

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 5, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center on Sunday increased the odds that a system in the Atlantic will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm and threaten the Caribbean.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave dubbed Invest 95L had a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the Atlantic.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 50% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% in the next seven.

The forecast bubble for just where it could form includes parts of the Caribbean, but it’s too soon to tell if it would become any threat to Florida.

It could become the 10th tropical cyclone of the 2025 season, and could form into Tropical Storm Jerry.

The NHC on Saturday stopped tracking a low-pressure area that continues to drop rain and kick up poor conditions on Florida’s East Coast on Sunday.

Rough breaking surf persists and all Central Florida beaches remain under a high rip current risk, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

Minor coastal flooding is possible around high tide and a localized flooding threat continues through at least Monday because of multiple bands of rain.

The NHC also has dropped to 0% the chances a system in the Gulf with disorganized showers and thunderstorms could develop as it moves slowly off the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

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