Gaza truce brings relief, but Arab states fear what comes next

As world leaders gathered in Egypt on Monday for the signing of a deal to halt the war in Gaza, there was celebration in both Israel and the shattered Palestinian enclave.

But among Arab countries — who helped seal the agreement and will shoulder the greatest burden going forward — there was a creeping sense of uncertainty given there’s little in place to underpin the plan’s future, according to officials across the region. Many remain cautiously optimistic, but have major concerns around who will fund Gaza’s reconstruction, whose troops will maintain peace, the future of Hamas and the reliability of Israel, said the people, who requested anonymity discussing sensitive matters.

“Arab and Muslim states, especially Gulf states, would be entering an uncharted terrain,” said Bader Al-Saif, assistant professor at Kuwait University and an associate fellow at Chatham House. “Will we be put into confrontation with elements of Hamas and do Israel’s bidding? It all looks too vague.”

Mediators, including Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, pushed to get the 20-point plan signed knowing the road to peace and reconstruction would be daunting. Israel’s bombing campaign has destroyed much of Gaza, which will cost hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild; Arab populations are agitating ever more for the Palestinian cause after tens of thousands were killed in the war.

The disarmament of Hamas after two years of war is a key Israeli condition — while a complete withdrawal of the Israeli army is something the Palestinian group has long demanded. Neither is close to being resolved. Over the weekend, Hamas’s security forces were reasserting their authority in Gaza, where Israeli soldiers still control large parts of territory and the country’s defense minister has vowed to resume destroying the militant group’s tunnel network. Hamas is designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and many other governments, and sparked the war with its Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel.

That came as phase one of the plan — which includes this week’s exchange of hostages and prisoners — gets underway, and U.S. President Donald Trump declared a “historic dawn of a new Middle East” in his address to the Israeli parliament on Monday.

Qatar, a key moderator throughout, hopes that’s the case, said an official from the Gulf state. Another senior Gulf official said much of the region is now pushing to see the plan through because — particularly in light of the devastation in Gaza — no one wants to see the cycle of death and despair continue.

And while Middle East states are mostly content with the deal, age-old differences between them had crept into some details, according to two Gulf-based Arab diplomats.

Some countries believe too many concessions were given to Israel, while some would have preferred to see Hamas expelled from Gaza. And there’s little confidence that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will stick to any agreement, one diplomat said.

The accord isn’t actually a “peace deal,” according to Uriel Abulof, professor of politics at Tel-Aviv University and visiting professor in Cornell University’s government department.

“It’s a survival pact for leaders who thrive on conflict,” he said via email. “For two years, Netanyahu and Hamas have used this war to solidify their power, continuing a long-standing dynamic where each side’s extremism justifies the other’s. This agreement, forced upon them by external patrons like the U.S. and Qatar, is deliberately vague on core issues, allowing both to claim a win.”

Speaking on the sidelines of the Egypt summit on Monday, another Arab official said Trump’s plan was fragile and unsustainable. A senior European official pointed out that the current agreement does little to address the major humanitarian issues in Gaza, where tens of thousands are injured and a U.N.-backed body declared a famine following an Israeli aid blockade.

One Gulf-based Western diplomat said that while phase one was feasible, the remainder of the plan is just a vision. Large international community plans and summits no longer decide the region’s fate, and the probability of Israel launching a second war against Iran after the 12-day conflict in June — potentially sparking a fresh regional crisis — remains high, the diplomat said.

“The amount of details and list of thorny questions that need to be worked out is huge, but at this point this agreement is all that Arab capitals have to work with,” said Anna Jacobs, non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “There’s a sense that the only option is to charge ahead, figure out how to keep Trump’s attention, and maintain pressure on both Israel and Hamas to continue negotiating and abide by the agreements.”

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—With assistance from Mirette Magdy, Sam Dagher and Samy Adghirni.