Eyes are on South Florida for redistricting after Supreme Court voting rights hearing

South Florida congressional seats are in Republicans’ crosshairs after this week’s U.S. Supreme Court hearing about the Voting Rights Act — a case Gov. Ron DeSantis has been closely watching, and which outside advocates say could put three Democratically held seats in Florida at risk.

“We believe Florida will become ground zero for discriminatory redrawing of maps should this court not make the right decision,” April England Albright, National Legal Director for Black Voters Matter, said after the hearing.

Both Democrats and Republican groups are already gearing up for a coming legal battle in Florida over new, mid-decade maps ahead of next year’s midterms.

The Florida Democratic Party recently hired new legal counsel specifically focused on redistricting, party Chairwoman Nikki Fried told the Miami Herald. The national conservative political committee Club for Growth has set aside a pot of funds to run ads in Florida to boost any new maps promoted by the Florida Legislature.

Wednesday’s Supreme Court hearing in Louisiana v. Callais was about whether state lawmakers should be allowed to draw congressional minority opportunity districts as a remedy to racially discriminatory voting maps under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

It’s a provision that gives “minority voters a fair chance to elect candidates of their choice who are responsive to their needs, a safeguard created in response to discrimination,” according to Black Voters Matter. Opponents, like the group of white Louisiana voters bringing the challenge as well as DeSantis, say accounting for race at all in drawing the maps is unlawful.

Black Voters Matter identified 19 Democratically held congressional seats across the South that could be targeted by states that otherwise have Republican governing trifectas if the court rules in favor of the white voters’ case.

Three of those 19 potential targets are in Florida. The seats where “Black and brown voters specifically” help determine the outcome of elections, according to Albright, are: Orlando-area District 9 held by Rep. Darren Soto, Palm Beach County’s District 20 held by Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and Miami-area District 24 held by Rep. Frederica Wilson.

DeSantis has called out Cherfilus-McCormick’s district specifically. “I think almost certainly if the VRA is interpreted to say that you can’t use race that way, then that district will have to be redrawn 100%,” DeSantis told reporters in August. “This attempt to pack, crack, and racially gerrymander districts are a blatant attack on the past 60 years of progress toward equity,” Cherfilus-McCormick wrote in a statement Thursday. “Right now, we are seeing maps that try to silence, divide, and erase. And I’m here to say: we will not be erased. “

Just because those three might be interpreted as minority opportunity districts under the Voting Rights Act doesn’t mean they will be targeted by Florida lawmakers if they pursue a mid-decade redistricting.

Democrats say Republicans are more likely to try to challenge the separate state-level Fair Districts Amendment — passed by voters in 2010 banning partisan gerrymandering — after the state’s Supreme Court sided with DeSantis in August in a case alleging Florida’s current maps violate the amendment. Most states don’t have a state-level restriction on overtly partisan gerrymandering like Florida does.

Fried said DeSantis “will use the ruling from SCOTUS to pat himself on the back and want to go further in gerrymandering our maps,” which she said the party’s lawyers would argue would be done for partisan reasons in violation of the Fair Districts Amendment.

“He’s specifically targeting South Florida districts,” she added. “And so the analysis of what this could do for Florida, it will have a direct impact on our Black voters, but it will also dilute the power of our Jewish voters.”

Democratic South Florida Congressman Jared Moskowitz has hinted at a potential Senate run if he’s drawn out of his district, as Democrats wait to see if they’re going to be pitted against one another ahead of the midterm elections.

Club for Growth said it is waiting to see what that committee does before it begins its ad spend in Florida. The political group has said it has allocated a “seven-figure national investment” in redistricting, and has run campaigns in Missouri, Texas, Indiana, Kansas and North Carolina. Part of that pot is set aside for Florida, its next planned target, according to Club for Growth President David McIntosh.

He said they’re hoping to see a map that “could expand the number of Republican opportunities from Florida, maybe even by three additional seats,” as the group seeks to prevent Democrats from taking back the House of Representatives next year.

“The advantage Florida has is it’s a very late primary, late filing deadline so they’ve got several months to work it out and get it passed,” McIntosh added.

Another factor at play in Florida’s potential redistricting efforts: Attorney General James Uthmeier is trying to get the U.S. Commerce Department to allocate Florida an additional congressional seat based on its population size, a legally complicated request without another Census.

Florida House Speaker Danny Perez has created a select committee on congressional redistricting this legislative session, but the committee has not yet met, according to two committee members’ offices. Committee Chairman Mike Redondo’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

Albright, the Black Voters Matter legal director, said she’s working to educate Florida voters in particular about redistricting in the coming months.

“You have a remedy that a lot of states don’t have if they start trying to redraw lines. There’s actual language in your state Constitution that will give you the opportunity to seek remedy in court. That also means that you’ve got to make sure you’re participating in judicial elections in the state,” Albright said. “South Floridians need to fight for that.”