India's poorest state begins vote count in crucial test for Modi

Swati Gupta, Bloomberg News on Nov 13, 2025

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Vote counting began Friday in Bihar — India’s poorest yet one of its most politically significant states — in an election seen as a key test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity after a year marred by economic headwinds and foreign policy challenges.

Exit polls released after Tuesday’s final phase of voting project that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and its regional ally, Janata Dal (United), will retain control of Bihar’s 243-seat assembly.

While these projections aren’t definitive, a victory would help Modi reassert control after a turbulent year marked by a four-day armed conflict with Pakistan and a collapse in U.S.-India trade ties, which is weighing on economic growth prospects. It’s also been a grim week for his government, following a deadly terror attack in the capital on Monday.

“It is important that he wins this election because it would help him to do some damage control to his dented image.” said Arati Jerath, a New Delhi-based author and political analyst.

Beyond foreign policy setbacks, Modi is also facing a vocal opposition that’s escalating its attacks over alleged election fraud all over India. Earlier this month, Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi claimed a single photograph was used multiple times to register fake voters in last year’s provincial elections in the northern state of Haryana.

In a post on X on Wednesday, Gandhi repeated his accusations that the BJP is colluding with the country’s poll watchdog, the Election Commission of India, to “steal” votes and undermine democracy.

The ruling party and the election body have denied the allegations of voter fraud.

Despite its weak economic status, Bihar has a massive influence in national politics with its 127 million people, equivalent to the entire population of Mexico. The state accounts for 40 of the 543 seats in the lower house of the national parliament.

The BJP has teamed up with the JD(U) party, led by current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has governed the state for most of the past two decades. Together with smaller allies, the bloc has wooed voters with social welfare programs and infrastructure projects.

The opposition’s campaign has been led by Gandhi and regional politician Tejashwi Yadav, who have highlighted lackluster job creation, and criticized Modi’s handling of the Pakistan conflict and failure to secure a trade deal with the U.S.

Modi is “pretty vulnerable” and could “lose some momentum” when it comes to legislative policy-making if he loses Bihar, said Richard Rossow, senior adviser at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.