BOGOTÁ, Colombia – Colombia’s left wing is on track to win the largest number of seats in legislative elections held Sunday, but faces an emboldened right-wing bloc, according to the preliminary vote count.

The Pacto Historico, or Historic Pact, founded by incumbent president Gustavo Petro – who is not eligible for re-election – won 22.8% of votes for the Senate, trailed by the right-wing Centro Democratico, or Democratic Center, with 15.6%. The presidential primaries, also held on Sunday, brought victory to the Democratic Center’s candidate, Paloma Valencia, though key frontrunners did not partake.

While the vote tally will be formalized in the coming days, analysts say the preliminary count reveals a polarized electorate and an uncertain result in May’s presidential first round.

Turnout in the election was notably low, at 48%, but marked a slight increase from the 2022 elections in which 46.4% of those eligible voted.

The results represent a victory for the ruling Historic Pact, which has campaigned on promising to continue Petro’s program of progressive economic reforms.

“I voted for the Historic Pact because I love the government we have and I want the change to continue and for the poor to stop being poor,” said Rosa Alba Alvares, 67.

While Petro is constitutionally limited to one term, senator Ivan Cepeda will lead his party’s ticket in the upcoming presidential elections. He was one of two frontrunners who abstained from partaking in primaries today, along with hard-right criminal defense attorney and political outsider Abelardo de la Espriella.

In recent polls, the two candidates jointly boasted over 50% of voting intention.

But analysts say Paloma Valencia, who received 45% of the votes cast for 16 candidates in Sunday’s primaries, may now be in a position to challenge de la Espriella.

“My view is that Abelardo de la Espriella will begin to dwindle as a result of this election, and Paloma will rise,” said Sergio Guzman, director at Colombia Risk Analysis, a Bogotá-based risk consultancy.

Valencia has the benefit of being backed by Álvaro Uribe, the most influential conservative figure in Colombian politics.

In fact, many Democratic Center voters said they chose Valencia simply because of her ties to Uribe.

“I voted for Paloma Valencia ... because the leader of the Democratic Center party is the person who has done the most good for Colombia, and that is Álvaro Uribe, and I am an Uribista,” said Nora Ordóñez, 80.

Valencia echoed Uribe’s famous “mano dura,” or “iron fist,” approach to dealing with the mounting power of illegal armed groups in Colombia.

Security has been a key issue on the ballot, with right-wing parties seizing on the deteriorating security situation and condemning Petro’s policy of negotiating with armed groups, which he has dubbed “total peace”.

Speaking to the Miami Herald before the elections, Valencia said: “Colombia cannot continue with a ‘mental illness’ that says that impunity for the violent is the only path to peace, because that is false.”

This electoral period has been overshadowed by violence, with the presidential frontrunner for the Democratic Center party, Miguel Uribe, dying in August after being shot at a campaign rally.

While today’s results propel Valencia forward as a presidential candidate, it remains unclear who is likely to emerge as the right-wing frontrunner in May’s elections.

“I believe that starting tonight, the presidential race in Colombia will be completely reconfigured as we head toward May 31,” said Miguel Jaramillo Luján, a Colombian political strategist. “There will definitely be no winner in the first round due to the high arithmetic dispersion among all the players.”

What is clear is that Cepeda will lead the emboldened Historic Pact in its bid to return to the country’s highest office.

“Ladies and gentlemen, today marks the beginning of our second act,” said Cepeda in a speech following the election results.

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—Additional reporting by Amelia Makstutis and Lily O’Sullivan

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