Hurricane center ups odds on newly tracked Atlantic system

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Sep 14, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla. — After a lull in activity, the National Hurricane Center on Monday continued to track a system now with an increased chance to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, a trough of low pressure in the central subtropical Atlantic about 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda had disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions over the system are currently unfavorable for development due to strong upper-level winds. However, as the system moves west-northwestward across the central part of the subtropical Atlantic, it is forecast to enter a more conducive environment for gradual development by the middle to latter portion of this week,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days, up from 20% given on Sunday.

So far the hurricane season has yet to produce an actual hurricane, but has seen the formation of tropical storms Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. The next name on the list is Fay.

Edouard made landfall in Louisiana with the NHC’s last advisory coming on Sept. 3 as it moved inland over Texas.

It’s been quiet in the tropics since then.

Hurricane season began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, but the height of hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last month updated its seasonal forecast and now expects between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes. It also predicted that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.

Already, 2026 was forecast to have lower-than-average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.

An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.

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