Will Isaias match Helene? National Weather Service forecasters address concerns

Joe Marusak, The Charlotte Observer on Oct 8, 2026

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CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Could Hurricane Isaias that strengthened in the Gulf Thursday deliver the destruction of 2024’s Hurricane Helene in the North Carolina mountains?

No, the Category 1 storm is not expected to be anywhere near the intensity of Category 4 Helene, National Weather Service forecasters said.

“Isaias is NOT expected to be another Helene,” NWS forecasters in the Greer, South Carolina, office posted on social media Thursday morning. ”While locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible, the current forecast is far less severe than the historic impacts experienced during Helene.”

NWS meteorologists said they wanted “to address concerns and put the forecast into perspective,” highlighting “key differences” between the storms.

“We recognize that many communities are still recovering from Helene, and we understand the concerns another tropical system may bring,” according to the NWS. “Our office stands with you, and we remain committed to providing timely, accurate forecasts to help keep you informed and safe.”

Expected rainfall amounts, wind speeds

Two to 3 inches of rain are expected in the Charlotte region, the mountains and Upstate South Carolina from Isaias, with higher amounts – 3 or 4 inches – along steep slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains, NWS meteorologists said.

That compares with Helene’s 15 inches to 30 inches of rain, the NWS said.

For hours, Helene had sustained winds of 60 mph and greater and gusts of at least 70 mph, NWS meteorologists said.

With Isaias? Winds of 15 mph to 25 mph are forecast across most of the Charlotte area, N.C. foothills and Upstate South Carolina, with 30-40 mph gusts, the NWS said.

Above 3,500 feet in the mountains, winds of 25 mph to 35 mph are forecast, with 40-50 mph gusts.

Multiple days of heavy rain and flash flooding occurred before Helene’s arrival, while we can expect dry conditions before Isaias, forecasters said.

The forecast for Isaias in North Carolina “is far less severe” than Helene, although “heavy rain and gusty winds remain possible,” according to the NWS. “This is the current forecast, and conditions may change as the system approaches.”

Where is Isaias?

Early Thursday, NOAA hurricane hunter planes indicated that Isaias was intensifying. “Preparations to protect life and property from storm surge and damaging winds along the warning area of the Gulf Coast should be rushed to completion,” National Hurricane Center meteorologists in Miami said in an Isaias update at 3 a.m. Thursday.

Precisely how much rain the hurricane will dump on the Charlotte region and North Carolina mountains remained uncertain, NWS forecasters said on social media site X.

Isaias was forecast to move northeast toward the central Gulf Thursday, turn north late Thursday and early Friday and make landfall near Pensacola, Fla., Friday night, the NWS said. The storm is then expected to barrel north across the Deep South through Saturday, NWS meteorologists said. Similarly, Helene made landfall two years ago on the Florida Gulf Coast before curling to the west near the mountains.

The eye of Isaias should pass well to the west of the Carolinas, “but tropical moisture will impact our area this weekend, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding, as well as very gusty winds,” according to the NWS Greer office.