SEATTLE — An effort to ban transgender girls from girls school sports in Washington has a significant lead in election results released Tuesday night.

According to the Secretary of State’s office, 57% of voters said yes on Initiative 638, one of three ballot measures backed by conservative political committee Let’s Go Washington.

Similar initiatives restricting transgender students’ participation in school sports were also leading in Colorado, Nebraska and Arizona, a bright spot for conservatives on a night otherwise marked by victories for progressives.

In Washington, more votes will be counted in the coming days, and could determine the future of the blue state’s status as a haven for transgender people. Nearly 20 years ago, Washington made history as the first state to allow transgender students to compete on sports teams consistent with their gender identity.

Now, Washington is among the first states in the nation to put the question of transgender participation in school sports directly before voters, an issue that has largely been decided through legislation elsewhere.

I-638 only applies to transgender girls and not transgender boys, and requires all students on K-12 girls teams to provide medical documentation that confirms their “biological sex,” according to the initiative.

A Seattle Times analysis determined that to break even, votes rejecting the initiative would need to account for 60% of the remaining votes to be counted. This assumes roughly two-thirds of registered voters in the state cast ballots.

If the initiative passes, it will likely face a legal challenge, several legal experts told The Seattle Times.

Let’s Go Washington founder Brian Heywood said that Tuesday night’s results were “a victory” for cisgender girls who compete alongside transgender girls.

“To every female athlete who wondered whether her voice mattered: tonight, Washington heard you,” Heywood said.

At an election night watch party by No Hate in Washington State, the coalition opposing Let’s Go Washington’s initiatives, the campaign said it would wait to see more votes counted to determine I-638's fate.

“We are optimistic that Washington voters stood strong against a national MAGA campaign paid for by billionaires and mega millionaires to scapegoat a handful of vulnerable trans children,” said Diane Bedwell, the campaign co-chair.

U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who was reelected Tuesday and advocates for transgender rights, said with new leadership in Congress, “we will change the national conversation” on trans issues.

Danni Askini, the executive director of the Gender Justice League, said Tuesday night’s count was disappointing. She cautioned that the Democratic Party should not “retreat from trans issues.”

“Progressive donors who want to continue to have these victories and want to win back the presidency in 2028 need to invest in understanding how to talk about trans people and how to win on this issue,” Askini said.

The Washington Interscholastic Activities Association, which regulates middle and high school sports, has allowed athletes to play on teams according to their gender identity since 2007. The WIAA is aware of about 10 transgender student athletes competing in the state, among more than 225,000 student athletes.

Votes to approve the ban were leading in more than 30 counties in Tuesday night’s vote count, including Pierce, Snohomish and Spokane counties. Votes to reject the ban were leading in King, Jefferson and San Juan counties.

What is Initiative 638, and how would it work?

I-638 seeks to prevent transgender girls from participating in individual or team athletic events “intended for female students only,” according to the initiative.

The requirement that all girls submit medical documentation verifying their “biological sex” was a controversial component that became a major part of opponents’ campaign to reject the measure.

That documentation must use a “student’s reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup, or normal endogenously produced testosterone levels” to confirm their assigned sex at birth, according to the initiative.

Supporters contend this verification can come from a doctor’s preexisting clinical history with a student, or from a “routine sports physical,” though providers who spoke with The Times said such verification is not a part of a typical sports physical.

Supporters view the initiative as a chance to counter an LGBTQ+ movement they say has overstepped — and motivate dispirited conservative voters in a state where Republicans have been losing ground.

Opponents see I-638 as part of a national strategy by conservatives to weaken LGBTQ+ rights and to boost turnout against Democrats by capitalizing on fear about transgender people. The opponents argue barring transgender girls from playing on teams with their cisgender peers is discrimination.

Let’s Go Washington also supported two other ballot measures in Tuesday’s election: Initiative 001, which would grant parents more leeway to request student records and instructional materials under the state’s existing “parents’ bill of rights,” and Initiative 645, which aims to repeal the state’s new high-earners income tax.

—Staff reporter Alex Yoon-Hendricks and data journalist Manuel Villa contributed to this report.

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