ArcaMax

Little Green Spacemen and Social Security

Well, if I listen to news reports or review the emails I get from many readers, I guess I'd have to conclude that Social Security is doomed. So that means it's time to once again trot out my "little green men and Social Security" story. This story has to do with an intriguing newspaper headline I read about 20 years ago that went like this: "More people think they'll see little green spacemen than a future Social Security check." The story that ran with that headline was based on a poll of young people that asked a question something like this: "Do you believe you will have a better chance of seeing a Social Security check someday or of seeing Martians land on Earth?" And guess what? Most people answered that they figured they'd be more likely to see little green men from outer space than their promised Social Security benefits.

I wasn't surprised by those poll results then, and I'm not surprised by people's pessimism now. That's because I've been listening to Social Security skeptics for half a century. I remember way back in 1973 when I was sent out as a relatively new Social Security Administration spokesperson to deliver my first speech on the topic. And hardly before I had a chance to introduce myself, some guy in the audience who appeared to be around 40 years old jumped up and said, "I don't know why we should listen to anything you have to say. We all know Social Security will go belly up long before we ever have a chance to collect a dime out of the system!"

Well, of course, if that guy is still alive, he'd be pushing 90 now and would have been collecting many millions of dimes in the form of Social Security checks, month in and month out, for about 30 years now. I've often wondered if he ever looked back and regretted his rude interruption of that neophyte Social Security rep's maiden Social Security presentation. At least I hope he accepted the fact that he was wrong.

That story always reminds me of something I learned from one of my mentors when I started working for the Social Security Administration. He was a fairly high-placed official within the agency who started working for the SSA shortly after it was created in 1936. And he told me that way back then, many members of the public were telling him that the Social Security program was doomed to failure.

Well, those doomsayers in 1936 were wrong about the future of Social Security. And that rude audience member who interrupted me in 1973 was wrong about the future of Social Security. And those poll respondents from about 20 years ago who said they'd see Martians from space before they'd see Social Security benefits were also wrong about the future of Social Security. And so too are the people I still hear from today who tell me that Social Security is destined to fail.

I mean, come on, folks! The Social Security program is 90 years old now. It has been paying monthly benefits for many decades without fail to hundreds of millions of people. How long must the program be around before people accept the fact that it is here to stay?

But of course, I'm not naive. I know what fuels people's recent skepticism about the future of the program. You can hardly go a week without seeing some newspaper report or some internet story predicting Social Security's demise.

Some of the headlines, like this one: "Social Security going broke in 2034" are just outright false. Some of the headlines, like this one: "Social Security benefits to be cut 20% in 2034," are misleading. And of course, none of the headlines tell the whole story.

If you go beyond the headlines and read the rest of the story, you will see a statement similar to this one: "By 2034, Social Security will only have enough cash reserves to pay 80% of promised benefits IF NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE SYSTEM BY THEN."

I added the emphasis to the "if no changes ... " part of that sentence because it is the key. The Social Security program will never reach the point where future benefits will have to be cut by 20% because there is absolutely no question that the system will be reformed before we reach the 2034 crunch date.

How do I know that? Well, for one thing, it's just common sense. No member of Congress, no president, no government official is going to let the Social Security program go belly up. You can be as cynical as you want about the state of politics and about the lack of bipartisanship in our country today. But I can assure you that no politician is going to say to their elderly constituents: "Sorry Grandma, because I'm bickering with my colleagues across the aisle and can't get anything done, I'm going to just forget about reforming Social Security and cut your Social Security checks by 20%!" (OK, maybe there are a few rogue members of Congress out there who might say that, but certainly nowhere near a majority.)

How else do I know that Social Security will not go belly up by 2034? Well, history is on my side. Throughout its history, the program has been reformed many times to keep it relevant and to keep it financially secure. The last time that happened in a big way was the early 1980s. At that point, the Social Security system was about five years away from going in the red. Back then, President Reagan appointed the National Commission on Social Security Reform, made up of a bipartisan coalition of Senators and members of Congress and other experts. They proposed, and Congress eventually passed, a series of relatively modest tax increases and benefit cuts that have kept the system solvent for the next 50 years.

And that's what's going to happen again. I'm betting there will be another commission established that will suggest relatively modest reforms that will keep the program solvent for the next half-century.

Before I close, I must make this point. I get dozens of emails from readers who tell me that the aforementioned Social Security headlines scare them. So, they are choosing to take early (and reduced) benefits now so that they can get "grandfathered in" to the current system before the program goes bust. My advice to them is always the same. DO NOT make Social Security decisions based on politics. Make decisions based on your own personal economic situation. And I say that because I can guarantee that you will have a better chance of seeing little green men from outer space than you will of seeing the Social Security program go belly up now or anytime in the future.

If you have a Social Security question, Tom Margenau has two books with all the answers. One is called "Social Security -- Simple and Smart: 10 Easy-to-Understand Fact Sheets That Will Answer All Your Questions About Social Security." The other is "Social Security: 100 Myths and 100 Facts." You can find the books at Amazon.com or other book outlets. Or you can send him an email at thomas.margenau@comcast.net. To find out more about Tom Margenau and to read past columns and see features from other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

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