TAMPA, Fla. -- Florida orange growers are bracing for yet another record-low harvest as climate challenges and diseased trees continue to cripple the once bustling industry.

The state is expected to produce 90% fewer oranges than it did 30 years ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s January forecast.

It’s the latest in a series of hits to Florida’s signature crop. Last year, a major labor group representing growers shut down due to financial constraints. And this month, one of the state’s largest producers is getting out of citrus altogether, saying it is no longer “economically viable.”

Scientists have raced for over a decade against citrus greening, the incurable disease killing trees across the state. Research behind a genetically modified tree shows promise.

But it could still be many years before the citrus industry rebounds to a healthy level.

“The disease is moving faster than the science can,” said Michael Rogers at the University of Florida.

Shrinking grove land

Kyle Story, a fourth-generation grower based in Lake Wales, remembers the turning point. In October 2012, his groves were hit by a brief cold snap.

Since then, “between greening and hurricane-related events, we’ve never recovered to those types of yields,” he said.

For at least two decades, citrus trees in Florida have been infected with greening disease, which attacks their vascular systems. The disease is spread primarily by insects called psyllids and ultimately causes trees to produce less fruit and, within a few years, die.

Storm winds further damage the weakened trees, ripping adolescent fruit from branches. Flooding from hurricanes can keep groves underwater for weeks at a time, often drowning the roots.

Recent storms like Hurricane Irma in 2017, Ian in 2022 and Milton last year caused repeated damage to groves, said Matt Joyner, chief executive officer of the trade group Florida Citrus Mutual.

“We see a pretty solid trend of a good three seasons before they start to get back to that pre-storm production level,” Joyner said. “It’s a time-consuming task and a lot of investment that these growers have to put into groves before they ever get back.”

Growers have had to become proactive, Story said, supplementing their operations with different crop varieties, buying insurance, and seeking disaster relief from the federal government. The culture and business model of growing citrus has changed.

Story said he’s employed several defenses: growing trees under screens or bags that keep psyllids away, spraying antimicrobials and testing plants regularly.

All of that is harder to afford with dwindling output, Story said.

“It’s a balancing act of ‘where do those resources come from with these decreased yields again?’” he said.

Not everyone has kept the faith. Less Florida land is dedicated to groves every year. Of the 950,000 acres zoned for citrus in 2012, Florida lost more than half by 2023, according to a Times analysis of property data.

The Gulf Citrus Growers Association cited the industry’s pains in a letter to members last year, announcing its closure. The organization represented growers in five Central Florida counties.

Then this month, one of the state’s top orange producers, Alico Inc., announced its plans to stop growing citrus and focus on other crops. Production declined about 73% in the last decade and Alico will not “spend further capital” after this year’s harvest.

“We’ve explored all available options to restore our citrus operations to profitability, but the long term production trend and the cost needed to combat citrus greening disease no longer supports our expectations for a recovery,” Alico’s president and CEO, John Kiernan, said in a statement.

Alico owns more than 53,000 acres across eight counties. More than half was slated for citrus crops in 2025, according to data from the state Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

A small portion of groves will be managed by third-party caretakers through 2026, and about three-quarters is expected to remain agricultural, the company said. About a quarter of Alico’s land — roughly 13,250 acres — is being considered for real estate development.

Growers are optimistic

The loss of such a large grower is troubling for the industry, said Joyner with Florida Citrus Mutual.

Smaller growers have long been the “backbone” of Florida’s citrus industry, he added.

“We’re getting down to that core group of dedicated folks that really want to grow citrus, and they’re going to continue to fight to do that,” Joyner said.

Florida’s total citrus acreage has steadily declined. But in the last four years, growers planted nearly 20,000 acres of trees, which officials say is crucial to ensure the industry’s “legacy thrives for future generations.”

“These numbers reflect the resilience and commitment of Florida’s citrus growers, who are dedicated to rebuilding in the face of adversity, and it is no doubt a step in the right direction,” Marisa Zansler, director of economic and market research at the Florida Department of Citrus, said in a statement.

Americans aren’t buying as much juice as a result of the supply shortage and broader inflation trends, Zansler said. But that hasn’t stopped the department from promoting its most iconic product.

“When supply is on the rise again, because that is what the Florida citrus industry’s reset and recovery efforts are working towards, the demand will be there to meet it,” she said.

Scientists in Florida are committed to finding a solution.

“As someone who’s seen the developments that are taking place, we see that there are going to be things coming in the future that will help tremendously with this disease, if not solve the disease,” said Rogers, the director of the Citrus Research and Education Center at the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. ”It’s just going to take time.”

The center announced this month that it’s developed a new tree variety. Researchers added a gene that produces a protein to kill baby Asian citrus psyllids. Plants resistant to adult psyllids are in the works.

It will take at least eight years for farmers to see results, Rogers said. The tree has only been in a laboratory up to this point. The next step will be testing its resistance to greening in the field, and it will take several years to mature enough to harvest fruit.

The new citrus varieties can’t save the trees that are already infected. Rogers said in the meantime, it’s imperative to keep land zoned for agriculture — even if it’s not growing citrus — so it can be available in the future.

Growers like Story are determined to wait it out. The latest research gives him hope.

“Each grower has to make their own decisions,” Story said. “We’re a resilient bunch, and we take it as the need to be resourceful.”

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