The arrest and recent imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu sent shockwaves through Turkey, marking a decisive shift toward full autocracy. On March 19, police officers — acting on instructions from the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP — detained İmamoğlu. By Sunday, the popular opposition figure was imprisoned — the very day he was set to be announced as the Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) presidential candidate.

The timing was not coincidental. The AKP, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, appears emboldened, calculating that the international community’s attention is fragmented enough to mute criticism of this brazen move. It is imperative, however, that the world proves this calculation wrong.

The arrest is a watershed moment in Turkey’s democratic trajectory, demanding immediate international condemnation.

İmamoğlu’s imprisonment is the latest chapter in a sustained campaign to dismantle Turkey’s opposition. His consecutive election victories rang alarm bells for the AKP. Since his landmark victory in the 2019 Istanbul mayoral race — where he overturned an annulled result to defeat the AKP’s candidate by a landslide — İmamoğlu has faced relentless legal harassment. These charges, devoid of merit, culminated in his politically motivated arrest, accompanied by the detention of more than 100 colleagues and advisers. Authorities even seized İmamoğlu’s family business, an illegal expropriation designed to cripple his financial independence.

This escalation follows CHP’s sweeping victories in Turkey’s 2024 local elections, in which the party won 35 provincial capitals— its first nationwide popular vote win since 1977. The AKP’s frustration was evident: Istanbul University, just one day before İmamoğlu’s arrest, annulled his university diploma, a transparent attempt to disqualify him from presidential candidacy. On the day İmamoğlu was set to be nominated as the CHP’s presidential candidate — running unopposed in the party’s primary — authorities rushed to jail him. In a show of defiance and solidarity, nearly 15 million citizens turned out to vote, underscoring public frustration and the demand for change.

The broader pattern is unmistakable. Since October, Turkish authorities have detained or imprisoned dozens of opposition figures, including the nationalist Victory Party’s leader, prominent journalists, business leaders and even the CHP’s youth branch president. Perhaps most alarming are the arrests of other democratically elected district mayors in Istanbul, where two municipalities were swiftly handed to government-appointed crony administrators. The fabricated charges — ranging from corruption to baseless accusations of terrorism — mirror the same tactics now being used to silence İmamoğlu.

This authoritarian turn comes at a precarious moment. As NATO’s second-largest military power and a critical energy transit hub, Turkey holds significant strategic weight for Europe and the wider West. Yet this crackdown risks transforming the country from a vital ally into a destabilizing force within the alliance.

The international community faces a stark choice: Will it prioritize Turkey’s strategic value at the expense of democratic principles, or will it take meaningful action to defend the rule of law in this crucial NATO member state?

Turkey’s growing instability has profound economic consequences. Global investors recognize that authoritarian regimes breed uncertainty, and the Turkish lira’s recent plunge following İmamoğlu’s arrest reflects these concerns. Foreign businesses may increasingly hesitate to invest in a country where legal institutions can be manipulated to suit political whims.

Europe, in particular, holds substantial leverage. Turkey remains eager to modernize its customs union with the European Union — an opportunity the EU must condition on tangible democratic reforms. The AKP may attempt to counter such pressure with threats to facilitate mass refugee flows into Europe, yet Western leaders must remain firm: Continued democratic backsliding must carry diplomatic and economic repercussions.

The United States also has a vital role to play. President Donald Trump’s administration shows an affinity for strongman leaders, so it may be reluctant to criticize Ankara, but Washington must recognize that tolerating Turkey’s authoritarian drift undermines NATO’s cohesion and weakens Europe’s security. By standing firm, the United States could reinforce its broader commitment to preserving democracy in Turkey.

The AKP may believe that this moment — marked by geopolitical realignment and shifting global attention — provides cover for its crackdown. But the world must prove otherwise. The imprisonment of İmamoğlu is not just a domestic affair; it also is a test of the international community’s willingness to uphold democratic values.

It is clear that silence would embolden further repression. Article 34 of the Turkish Constitution, which guarantees the right to peaceful assembly without prior permission, now holds little weight in an environment in which political repression stifles dissent by the public and obstructs any meaningful resistance movement. A strong, unified response would not only defend Turkey’s democracy but would also send a powerful signal to the millions of Turkish citizens who continue to believe in a more just and democratic future.

Failing to act risks sending a message to autocrats that democratic norms can be dismantled without consequence.

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Bilal Bilici is a member of Turkey’s Parliament, representing Adana province in the Grand National Assembly from the Republican People’s Party.

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