Is Rep. Ami Bera a shoo-in for the redrawn Sacramento House district?

David Lightman, The Sacramento Bee on Nov 12, 2025

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SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Rep. Ami Bera says he’s got a heck of a shot at winning California’s redrawn Sacramento-dominated 3rd Congressional District.

Prospects are good, but ...

Rep. Kevin Kiley, a Republican, represents the current 3rd District, which is a Republican stronghold. But the district boundaries have been radically altered, and it’s now Democrat-friendly.

“Kiley will be a tough opponent. He will claim to be the incumbent, and he does a good job of getting attention and appealing to common sense, on some issues, anyway,” said Charles Turner, professor of political science at California State University, Chico.

Bera will be the featured guest at a Sacramento Bee on-the-record discussion Thursday starting at 5:30 p.m. at the Bee’s East Sacramento newsroom. This event is limited to Sacramento Bee subscribers, and it’s free but is already at maximum capacity.

Kiley or any Republican would start a race against Bera with a disadvantage, Turner said, because Democrats will outnumber Republicans.

That’s why “Ami Bera’s decision to switch to the 3rd District makes sense,” said Matthew Klein, U.S. House and governor analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Bera, a physician and former Sacramento County chief medical officer, has represented since 2013 congressional districts that have included most of Sacramento County.

After California voters last week approved Proposition 50, which redrew district lines to create five Democratic-friendly districts, Bera announced minutes after the polls closed he’ll run next year in the 3rd District. He called the new lines a natural fit

“In my time, I’ve always represented most parts of Sacramento County,” he told The Bee in an interview. “This is a district that has the most [parts of] Sacramento County.” It will also include Folsom, which was part of his district before a previous redrawing, and will stretch to the Nevada border.

Kiley has not yet said where he will run. The current 3rd District, which he won in 2024 by 11 percentage points, stretches from Sacramento’s eastern suburbs to the Nevada border and down to Death Valley. Pieces of the current 3rd will be distributed to six different districts.

It was a district President Donald Trump won by about 4 percentage points last year. If the new 3rd District had existed, though, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris would have won by about 10.

Can Republicans win in Sacramento?

Republicans insist they have a decent shot at winning.

“Out of touch career politician Ami Bera spent years rubber-stamping the radical Democrats’ agenda 99% of the time, making California the most unaffordable state,” said Christian Martinez, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

A Bera-Kiley race would be a classic test of Democratic vs. Republican strength. Bera said in an interview with The Bee he’ll emphasize the affordability issue, how people are struggling to pay their bills, buy a home and afford medical care.

He talked about the One Big Beautiful Bill, the Republican-authored economic legislation this summer that made huge cuts in Medicaid and other government programs.

Bera’s new district includes areas where rural hospitals could be heavily affected by the health care cuts.

He has no easy answers. Do the cuts give lawmakers an opportunity to take a broader look at the health care system. For instance, he asked, “Do we make people buy much more health care policy than they actually need? For young, healthy folks can you create a policy that is more affordable and accessible?”

Kiley supported the Big Beautiful Bill. He emphasized its tax breaks. The bill continues the tax cuts enacted during the Trump administration that were due to expire at the end of this year.

“Californians will soon get something long overdue: Major tax relief,” Kiley said.

Assessing Kiley’s chances

The Republicans’ Martinez was not as gentle when assessing a race against Bera.

Bera’s work, Martinez said, has been “accomplishing nothing except protecting his party over Californians.”

A Bera-Kiley race could come down to the personal touch. Bera is confident.

He says he’s well known to about 60% of the new district’s voters, so “I start with a pretty natural advantage and name ID.”

Kiley, who at 40 has already won two House races, has been more independent lately, openly questioning House Speaker Mike Johnson’s refusal to bring the House back for voting sessions between Sept. 19 and Wednesday, during the federal government shutdown.

Kiley figured he’ll be fine wherever he runs.

“There will always be challenges,” he said.

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