9 concerns the Dodgers should have about facing the Reds in the NL wild-card series
Published in Baseball
LOS ANGELES — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said he would be scoreboard watching on Sunday afternoon.
But he insisted he didn’t care how things played out.
His team, of course, had already been locked in as the National League’s No. 3 seed, set to host a best-of-three wild-card series at Dodger Stadium starting Tuesday.
What wasn’t clear until the end of play on Sunday, however, was whether the Dodgers would be facing the Cincinnati Reds or New York Mets to open the postseason.
“I honestly don’t really care, I really don’t,” Roberts said. “I think the way we’re playing right now, it doesn’t matter who we play.”
In a photo finish for the NL’s final wild-card berth, it was the Reds who earned the final ticket to the postseason, clinching in spite of their Sunday loss to the Milwaukee Brewers thanks to the Mets’ defeat in Miami at the hand of the Marlins.
Thus, it will be the Reds coming to Chavez Ravine this week, trying to halt the Dodgers’ defense of last year’s championship.
“It’s a gritty group. It’s a hungry group. It’s certainly a younger group,” Roberts said after the matchup was set. “These guys are going to be coming in to win a series. They’re feeling really good about themselves. So we’ve got to focus on ourselves and take it to them.”
Here are nine things to know about the Reds ahead of Game 1 at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday:
Tito magic
On Sept. 5, the Reds appeared left for dead. They were a game under .500. They were trailing the Mets by six games for the final NL wild-card spot. They had two other teams to catapult in the standings.
At that point, Fangraphs’ computer models gave them just a 1.3% chance of reaching the postseason.
But then, they reeled off 13 wins in their next 21 games, including an 8-3 run to end the year. And thanks to some help from the Mets over the final few weeks, they clinched a playoff spot in a full campaign for the first time since 2013.
The Reds reached October, first and foremost, by following the lead of their veteran manager.
At 66 years old, two-time World Series champion and three-time manager of the year Terry Francona came out of what appeared to be his managerial retirement to take another crack at contention with upstart Cincinnati.
His first season wasn’t easy, with a young pitching staff and a patchwork offense struggling to find consistency for much of the year. But now, Francona is back in the postseason for the 12th time in his 24-year career. His 44 career playoff wins are seventh-most all time, trailing only Roberts and former Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy among active skippers.
Electric Elly
The Reds do not have an overpowering offense. They rank just 14th in scoring, 19th in batting average and 21st in home runs and slugging percentage. They have just two qualified batters with an above-league-average mark in OPS+.
One of them, however, is Elly De La Cruz.
And even at just 23 years old, he has become the biggest threat in their lineup.
In just his third MLB season, De La Cruz earned his second All-Star selection while batting .264 with 22 home runs, 86 RBIs, a .776 OPS, and 37 stolen bases. In each of the last four categories, he leads the team. He also played in all 162 games in the regular season.
A 6-foot-5, 200-pound switch-hitter who is more dangerous from the left side, De La Cruz is prone to strikeouts (he had 181 this season) and is not hitting the ball as hard as he did last year. But he is also one of the game’s most intriguing and exciting up-and-coming talents, and will now get his first crack on a postseason stage.
Old friend alert
Nine months after being traded from the Dodgers to the Reds this past offseason, Gavin Lux will be playing October baseball at Dodger Stadium again.
Now in his sixth MLB season, Lux has still not realized the top-prospect potential he came up with in Los Angeles a half-decade ago. While he hit a team-best .269 during his first season in Cincinnati, he had just five home runs, a .725 OPS, and a negative mark in wins-above-replacement according to Baseball Reference.
What Lux has provided to his new club, however, is some World Series-winning experience. He has gone from a young role player on the Dodgers, to something of a veteran leader with the Reds.
Lux, whom the Dodgers traded away after signing Hyeseong Kim in January, has served in a utility role this year, getting starts at second base, left field and as the designated hitter. He didn’t have a great postseason with the Dodgers last year, when he hit just .176 during the team’s title run. But now, he has a chance to help upset the team that dealt him coming into the season.
Hunter Greene homecoming
When Dodgers slugger Freddie Freeman was asked Sunday about the challenges the Reds pose, he immediately cited their starting pitching — and young right-hander Hunter Greene specifically.
Eight years ago, the Reds drafted Greene second overall out of Sherman Oaks Notre Dame.
Now, after being a key part of their rebuild, the 25-year-old will get the chance to make his postseason debut close to home at Dodger Stadium.
In general, the Reds’ biggest strength is their rotation, which ranked ninth in the majors in ERA this season and fourth during their surge since Sept. 6. Greene has been a key piece of the puzzle, going 7-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 19 starts despite missing more than two months in the middle of the year with a groin strain.
Greene is one of the hardest-throwing starters in the majors, with a fastball that averages 99.5 mph and a slider that clocks in at almost 90 mph. He’s one of the sport’s best at getting chase, whiff and strikeouts as well, ranking fifth among pitchers with 100 innings with a 31.4% strikeout-rate.
Greene will also be lined up for a Tuesday’s potential Game 1 start, having not pitched since last Wednesday. The start before that was perhaps the best of his career: A one-hit, nine-strikeout shutout of the Chicago Cubs on Sept. 18.
The rest of the rotation
Greene might be the most gifted Reds’ starter, but others in their rotation have been even more productive this season.
Andrew Abbott, a 26-year-old left-hander who excels at limiting hard contact, is 10-7 with a 2.87 ERA in 29 starts. Nick Lodolo, another left-hander with an excellent curveball/changeup combination, is 9-8 with a 3.33 ERA, also in 29 outings.
The team’s wins and strikeout leader is Brady Singer, a lengthy 6-5 right-hander who went 14-12 with a 4.03 ERA. Zack Littell is the other member of the Cincinnati rotation, though the trade deadline acquisition hasn’t been as good with the Reds (4.39 ERA) as he was with the Tampa Bay Rays earlier this season (3.58 ERA).
The real question for this week is which of those arms are available. Lodolo came out of the bullpen for an inning after Singer’s start on Sunday, but could still be an option for Game 2. Abbott last pitched Saturday, making him available for a potential Game 3.
Red(s)-hot closer
Emilio Pagán was no stranger to the ninth inning before this year, having recorded 33 saves in his first eight MLB campaigns.
But this season, the veteran righty has been among the most dependable closers in the majors, as one of just seven relievers with at least 30 saves (he had 32) and a sub-3.00 ERA (his was 2.88).
With his fastball/splitter/cutter mix, Pagán has been especially good down the stretch, having converted six consecutive save opportunities and thrown 10 consecutive scoreless innings since Sept. 8.
The Reds’ talent might pale in comparison to the Dodgers at most spots on the roster. But the reliability of their closer is one place where they have a clear edge.
Ohtani killers?
The Reds finished the season with just one left-handed pitcher, Brent Suter, in their bullpen.
But when it comes to matching up with Shohei Ohtani, they do have a couple righties with successful personal histories against him.
Set-up man Graham Ashcraft and multi-inning swingman Nick Martinez have both faced Ohtani 10 times in their careers. The soon-to-be four-time MVP is 0 for 9 in both matchups, having drawn only one walk against each.
For reference: There are only seven other pitchers against whom Ohtani is at least 0 for 9 in his career (one of them, coincidentally, is a current teammate: Clayton Kershaw ).
A deep bullpen
The Reds have two other relievers to know — and they might be the best two on the team.
Right-hander Tony Santillan not only had the second-most appearances in the majors with 80 this season, but did so while posting a 2.44 ERA and opponents batting only .200 against him.
Another right-hander, 24-year-old Connor Phillips, has only been a full-time fixture on the Reds’ big-league roster since mid-August. But in that time, he has given up just four runs in 20 innings while striking out 28 batters and giving up six total hits.
Wild-card wackiness
The Reds will be the lower-seeded underdog in next week’s series. But recent history suggests that could work to their benefit.
In three postseasons since MLB expanded its playoff field in 2022, road teams have won in eight of the 12 best-of-three wild-card series — a reminder that with such a small sample size, anything is possible in the crapshoot of October.
“You don’t play the game on paper, so we’ve got to have that edge we’ve talked about,” said Roberts, whose Dodgers team will be playing in the new wild-card round for the first time after failing to secure a bye as a top-two seed as they had the past three seasons.
“They can pitch and they’re athletic. They’ve got a great manager who’s won a couple championships. We’ve got to be ready.”
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