Tom Krasovic: Popgun Padres now must hit themselves past Cubs

Tom Krasovic, The San Diego Union-Tribune on Sep 30, 2025

Published in Baseball

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SAN DIEGO — It was this simple: Padres hitters weren’t good enough Tuesday afternoon in Game 1 of the best-of-three wild-card series.

And making the 3-1 road loss more concerning, the inadequate offense wasn’t surprising from a unit that ranked 18th of 30 major league teams in runs scored this season.

The Padres hit no home runs on a warm day at Wrigley Field. That’s no way to begin a World Series tournament in today’s home run era.

More bothersome was this: Up 1-0 thanks to consecutive doubles by Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts in the second inning, the Padres twice had a runner on third base with fewer than two outs but didn’t score.

For reasons beyond the obvious, the Padres had to get each of those runners home.

One, hitting conditions would worsen due to ballpark shadows encroaching upon home plate.

Two, a multi-run lead would put more heat on Cubs hitters and pitchers, while the shadows and a strong Padres bullpen also lurked.

In fairness, Padres No. 6 hitter Ryan O’Hearn hit the ball very hard with Bogaerts on third base and none out in the second. It went to draw-in shortstop Dansby Swanson, who threw to first base. Completing the escape, Cubs pitcher Matthew Boyd retired Gavin Sheets (popout) and Jake Cronenworth (groundout).

Swanson kept Manny Machado at third base two innings later, making a sparkling snag of O’Hearn’s 200-foot looper for the second out. A flyout by Sheets ended the threat.

Home runs make it so much easier for an offense, and the Cubs, who ranked sixth in home runs this season, hit two of them in the fifth inning to go ahead 2-1.

With shadows darkening the hitting area, right-handers Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly homered off ace Nick Pivetta, who gets a B+ for his first postseason start since 2021 with the Boston Red Sox.

Until the fifth, the Cubs couldn’t square up the 6-foot-5 right-hander’s high fastballs.

But Pivetta threw a thigh-high fastball to the underrated Suzuki, whose 424-foot drive went for his sixth home run in five games and 33rd this year, The Padres’ home run leader, Machado, has 27.

Up next was Kelly. First time up, he struck out on a high fastball. This time, when Pivetta threw a similar pitch, Kelly hit it just beyond the left-center wall. With 18 home runs, the catcher’s total exceeds the combined total of three Padres catchers.

Enhanced by advancing shadows, Cubs relievers closed out the Padres with four hitless innings and punished them for scoring only one run in clear conditions.

Padres hitters struggled to recognize pitches in the dappled light. Fernando Tatis Jr. took three straight strikes after taking two balls in the eighth. Normally, he would’ve swung at all three strikes.

Before Shadow Ball emerged, the Padres indulged Small Ball tactics in pursuit of crucial add-on runs.

Machado feigned a bunt on a 2-1 pitch opening the fourth. While that’s not standard for a team’s home run leader, it was meant to bother Boyd, and indeed the pitch went for a ball, leading to a leadoff walk.

Differentiating themselves from the MLB pack once again, the Padres advanced Machado one base via a sacrifice bunt by their cleanup hitter, Jackson Merrill.

A good debate could be had over Merrill’s decision. Counting his bloop double off Boyd in the second, Merrill had slugged well over .700 in the past 20 games.

Having led MLB in sacrifice bunts, Mike Shildt’s Padres were doing what they do. And when Bogaerts nubbed an infield single, the Popgun Padres had runners on the corners with one out before Boyd and Swanson got the Cubs out of it.

Beating the Cubs in Games 2 and Game 3 the next two days would send the Padres to Milwaukee for the Division Series and recall the franchise’s famed comeback in the 1984 National League Championship Series. Back then, it took beating the Cubs in three consecutive elimination games, albeit in Mission Valley.

It would be a shame if the Padres failed to leverage the amazing arm of reliever Mason Miller into an October run.

Firing sliders and triple-digit fastballs for strikes, Miller struck out the side in the seventh in his playoff debut. In just one of his 27 games with the Padres has the ex-A’s right-hander allowed a run. He’s averaging two strikeouts per inning since coming over in a summer trade for San Diego’s top prospect.

But with an offense that’s subpar at Big Ball and only pretty good at Little Ball, the margins are scant for everyone in brown and gold.

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