PHILADELPHIA — The smart money is on José Alvarado, Justin Crawford and Kyle Schwarber being part of the Phillies roster next season.

Max Kepler, Ranger Suárez and, yes, Nick Castellanos are a different story.

Dave Dombrowski didn’t offer many direct answers in his year-end news conference Thursday, but the Phillies president did provide a relatively informative sense of where his head is at going into the offseason. Particularly notable were a handful of draw-your-own-conclusions moments.

Some initial interpretations:

The Phillies aren’t going to 'blow it up,' mostly because the notion never made much sense.

I’ve never been entirely sure what people mean when they throw up their hands and say the Phillies have reached a point where they need to make drastic, fundamental changes to their roster. The core of this roster ain’t going anywhere.

Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are signed well into next decade. Schwarber is coming off an MVP-caliber season. The Phillies have five starting pitchers under contract for next season. Taijuan Walker and Aaron Nola can’t be traded with their contracts. Nobody wants Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez or Jesús Luzardo traded.

What are people talking about when they talk about blowing “it” up?

What is “it?”

Say goodbye to Castellanos?

Sure. I think the Phillies will try their hardest to do so. Dombrowski certainly didn’t go out of his way to throw cold water on the notion when he was asked if the relationship between Castellanos and the Phillies can continue after a season in which the veteran right fielder grumbled about his playing time and eventually lost his job.

“We’ll see what happens,” Dombrowski said. “I don’t know. I’m not going to get into specific players that are on our roster under contract, the things that you talked about are accurate, but we’ll see what happens.”

Let J.T. Realmuto sign elsewhere as a free agent?

That would probably be the wise choice if another team is willing to give him anything close to the $23 million he earned this season in the final year of his contract. But the Phillies would probably need to swing some sort of trade to fully replace Realmuto’s production, diminished as it was. The only other free-agent catcher who had at least 400 plate appearances this season is 35-year-old Salvador Perez.

There’s a reason Realmuto was so valuable for so long. It’s tough to find a catcher who is anything other than an eight- or nine-hole hitter. It’s no coincidence that the four teams still alive in the playoffs each has a catcher who ranked among the top six in weighted on-base average this season. A catcher who can hit is a huge advantage.

Trade Alec Bohm for a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat?

That’s not how trades work. Maybe there is a deal out there for Bohm or Brandon Marsh that could land the Phillies some type of replacement for Realmuto. Maybe they can trade one of those two players for a high-leverage relief arm. Maybe they can trade Bohm and use his and Realmuto’s money to sign somebody like Alex Bregman to play third base. But those are very soft maybes.

Besides, do any of those things really qualify as “blowing it up?”

Dombrowski was right when he said 96-win teams don’t typically engage in uncreative destruction simply because they haven’t won a World Series. He pointed to the 1990s Braves as an example.

“It was a lot of years before they won a world championship,” Dombrowski said. “They just kept going at it, and they finally won it. I think that’s what we need to do is to continue to strive to get a little bit better.”

That’s just reality.

Crawford is a heavy favorite to make next year’s opening-day roster.

Dombrowski got surprisingly specific when he said that Kepler most likely will not be back next season because the Phillies have Crawford waiting in the wings. It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to deduce that the Phillies have one of their three outfield positions earmarked for Crawford, potentially in combination with a veteran right-handed bat.

A pairing between Crawford and Harrison Bader would make a lot of sense, assuming that Bader can be re-signed at a number not too far north of his $10 million mutual option.

The Phillies’ messaging on Crawford has been a bit confusing over the last several months. Dombrowski and manager Rob Thomson have said they have a ton of confidence in Crawford and believe he is ready to play in the majors. Yet, to date, Crawford has not played in the majors.

Here’s what Dombrowski said Thursday when asked what Crawford needs to do to earn a spot on the opening day roster.

“He needs to go to camp and just basically do what he’s been doing,” he said. “He’s led the league in hitting, he can steal bases, he’s a good energy guy, he’s a solid outfielder. You just want somebody to come in and keep their head above water to show you.

“I don’t expect them to carry our club in the very beginning of the season. But you also don’t want to put him in there where you think it would be a bit too much for him. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but you still need to show it. But I don’t know what else he does at the minor league level at this point.”

I think it’s as simple as this: The Phillies had Kepler last year. Next year, they won’t. Crawford will be Kepler.

The Phillies will be more aggressive with other young players than they were with Crawford last season.

Dombrowski name-checked Crawford, Otto Kemp, Gabriel Rincones, Andrew Painter and Aidan Miller as players who could all potentially help the Phillies next season. The most sensible plan would be to have Crawford in the lineup on opening day. If he thrives, great. If not, they can give Rincones a chance. Kemp can factor into the mix as well.

Plan A would have Marsh and Bader as the two veteran bats, potentially with a lower-cost veteran mixed in. In other words, don’t expect a big run at Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger.

Re-signing Schwarber is Plan A for the Phillies. They’ll do everything in their power to get a deal done.

Dombrowski all but said it on Thursday.

“We’d love to bring Kyle Schwarber back,” Dombrowski said. “It’s a priority for us. He knows it. But I also know he’s a free agent. When guys have free agency, you never know what happens. But it’s a real priority for us to bring him back, and he knows it, and his representative knows it, and we’ll see what happens.”

Long story short, it would take somebody else’s stupid money to prevent John Middleton from keeping Schwarber in a Phillies uniform for the rest of his career. Four years and $120 million would be a sensible deal for all involved.

Don’t be surprised if Schwarber is the Phillies’ only megabucks signing. Dombrowski didn’t rule out the idea of making a big external splash in free agency. In fact, I’d bet the Phillies at least engage in preliminary talks with Bregman, along with Japanese hitters Kazuma Okamoto (3B/OF) and Munetaka Murakami (3B/1B). If they happen to win the bidding, they’ll go from there.

One note: Pete Alonso’s only potential is as a backup plan to Schwarber, with Dombrowski saying he viewed Bryce Harper as a first baseman long-term.

The Phillies are preparing to say goodbye to Suárez.

Dombrowski didn’t say that explicitly. But there was a moment when he answered a question with a for-instance that included his listing of the top four pitchers in the Phillies’ rotation next year: Wheeler, Sánchez, Luzardo, Nola.

Dombrowski noted that he was excluding Suárez because of his free agency. The writing has been on the wall ever since last year’s trade for Luzardo. Don’t be surprised if Walker is back again as fifth starter/Painter placeholder.

Alvarado might be the Plan A fix for the bullpen.

Dombrowski wouldn’t say whether the Phillies were planning on exercising the lefty’s option, but he did strongly hint that they would. In which case, the Phillies will enter the season with Jhoan Duran at closer and Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering and Tanner Banks as their higher-leverage relief arms/specialists.

I can’t imagine they won’t at least try to add another higher-caliber arm to that mix. Whoever that might be will need to work out better than Jordan Romano did.

Long story short, the best case for the Phillies is another offseason like last year, and another opening-day roster that people will think looks far too similar to previous years.

That said, I fully expect Dombrowski and Middleton to be more aggressive than Thursday suggested. Once again, the trade market could be the bigger focal point than free agency. The Phillies struck gold with Luzardo last year. Even if Schwarber returns, they need to turn over every stone in search of a hitter with more of a middle-order profile than Bohm.

That’s my interpretation, at least.

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