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David Murphy: Phillies give the incomparable Kyle Schwarber an incomparable contract, still need another big bat behind him

David Murphy, The Philadelphia Inquirer on

Published in Baseball

PHILADELPHIA — Kyle Schwarber was going to finish his career in a Phillies uniform. They’d been saying it without saying it since October. On Tuesday, they said it explicitly.

Five years, $150 million.

It is a remarkable sum of money on a number of different levels. But, then, Schwarber is a remarkable hitter on a number of different levels. Only three players in major league history have hit more home runs in the first three years of their 30s. Aaron Judge is the only player who has done it since the height of the steroid era. Sammy Sosa and Jim Thome are the other two. Schwarber’s 141 home runs between 30 and 32 years old are nine more than Babe Ruth hit at the same age.

What are the biggest priorities for the Phillies?

You can bet that Thome was on John Middleton’s mind when the Phillies owner signed off on his latest megabucks deal. Heading into his 33-year-old season, Schwarber is older than most free agents who sign contracts such as his. But he is only one year older than Thome was when the latter signed his six-year, $85 million contract with the Phillies in December 2002.

That deal aged well. Thome remained one of the game’s elite power bats well into his late 30s. He averaged 28 home runs and 484 plate appearances per season between the ages of 34 and 38. That was a significant drop-off from the 45 and 651 he averaged between 29 and 33. But no matter. The Phillies will be thrilled to be paying Schwarber $30 million in 2030 dollars if they can pencil in 30 home runs from him at the age of 38.

Mostly, though, that fifth year is the cost of doing business. Schwarber’s elite-elite power would have meant a dramatic upgrade to virtually any lineup in the majors. There was a market for his services. And the Phillies would have been devastated to lose him.

Middleton will surely tell you that a deal like this is bigger than dollars and cents and on-field statistics.

 

The Phillies feel like they need Schwarber in the middle of their lineup, yes. That much is obvious. He has scored or driven in 21.7% of the 3,105 runs they’ve produced in the last four regular seasons. But the Phillies also feel like they need Schwarber in the clubhouse, and on the team charter, and on the Wall of Fame when all is said and done. Certain players belong with certain franchises. The Phillies were willing to pay to cement that association.

They were also willing to bear the risk that Schwarber ages like so many other sluggers who came before him. There really isn’t a recent comparable for giving a 33-year-old designated hitter a five-year, $150 million deal. Schwarber’s representation probably pointed to the six-year, $162 million contract that Freddie Freeman signed with the Dodgers in 2022. Freeman was one year younger than Schwarber, and he plays the field.

So, yes, there is plenty of risk. Over the last 15 years, only three players have had more than two seasons of 30-plus home runs between the ages of 33 and 37. Eight had two or more. That’s not exactly a bankable track record. In 2030, the Phillies will be paying a combined $115-plus million to 37-year-old Schwarber, 37-year-old Bryce Harper, 37-year-old Trea Turner and 37-year-old Aaron Nola.

There is also some risk on the front end. The Phillies have never shown a blatant disregard for luxury tax spending the way the Dodgers and Mets have. All indications are they live in a world that has limits. Every dollar they pay to someone is a dollar less they can pay to someone else. In such a world, $30 million is a lot to commit each year to a player who is locked into the designated hitter position. If the Phillies intend to match their spending pattern of previous offseasons, they are already running out of disposable funds. Schwarber’s deal puts them at a projected $288 million in payroll commitments for 19 players.

If ever there was a time to go for broke, that time is now. While Schwarber may have been the biggest question of the offseason, nearly as big is the question of where he hits, and who hits behind him. The Phillies have been missing a third power bat in the middle of the order ever since Rhys Hoskins suffered a torn ACL in 2023 and then left via free agency.

In Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, there are a couple of marquee free-agent bats available who would push the Phillies lineup much closer to reaching its potential. Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernández is rumored to be available via trade, although at $22 million a year he wouldn’t offer much of a discount on an annual basis over the top of the free-agent market.

In short, Schwarber was a given. Only something drastic and unforeseen would have prevented him from wearing red pinstripes in 2026 and beyond. Any judgment of the Phillies’ offseason will depend on what happens next.


©2025 The Philadelphia Inquirer, LLC. Visit at inquirer.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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