FORT WORTH, Texas — Just as no one expected the Texas Rangers to contend for much of anything in 2023, even fewer do in 2026.

Spring training has started in Surprise, Ariz., and the excitement and anticipation for the Rangers is noticeably absent.

Don’t blame the team’s 90-degree turn away from spending in the offseason, the L.A. Dodgers’ payroll, or the potential planning around the future collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the players association, but rather the rate of development of the Rangers’ own draft picks.

The Rangers should be where the Houston Astros were around the 2018 season, and still in the beginning phases of a prolonged run of success.

All of the losing the Rangers did from 2017 to 2022 should have resulted in a run of in-house players who should now be the complement to the pricey free-agent players the team signed in ‘21 and ‘22 to be a repeat contender for the next several years. It has not happened.

In one of the more disappointing local sports developments in the last 10 years, the Rangers’ 2023 World Series title now looks more like a one-off rather than the start to an Astros-like run. Since winning the 2023 World Series, the Rangers have regressed to the mean. In the ensuing seasons they have one losing record, one .500 season, and 0 playoffs.

The Vegas over/under on their projected win total in ‘26 is 82.5, and the odds of them winning the World Series are 30-1.

Rangers’ issues are developmental

The Rangers are not here with low expectations because the team ownership group led by Ray Davis is taking a step back from being active in the free-agent market. Their projected payroll in 2026 is $214 million, which includes MLB’s payroll tax. That’s 14th in the league; they were sixth in 2025.

The ownership group is feeling the fatigue of paying for a top-five, or top-10, payroll, something they’ve done consistently in their near 15-year run as owners of the franchise. The Rangers play in a top-five media market, but they don’t have the type of revenue like the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees or Cubs.

Short of spending like a drunk oil and gas executive who has no regard for today or tomorrow, the Rangers had to hit on their own to remain near the top of MLB.

From 2018 to 2023, the club selected 20 players in the top 120 picks of the respective amateur drafts; the highlights include pitchers Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, and position players Josh Jung, Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford.

The lowlights include Cole Winn, Owen White, Justin Foscue and a list of others who were drafted high but didn’t make it.

The Rangers do not win their World Series without the respective contributions from Jung and Carter. Both were terrific in the 2023 playoffs, and neither has been the same since.

Carter has had back issues, and been limited to 108 total games the past two years combined. Back issues are never fun, and Carter has not demonstrated he can stay healthy, much less produce for an entire season.

Jung has had health issues, and last season slumped badly to the point the team sent him to the minors. A former All-Star, it feels like Jung may have entered the “make or break” stage with the club.

Leiter showed something last season as he made 29 starts, posted a 3.86 ERA and finished seventh in the Rookie of the Year voting. Rocker had Tommy John surgery in 2023, and last season with the big league club he made 14 starts with a 5.74 ERA.

Langford has been solid in his first two MLB seasons, and the Rangers need him to provide offense from an outfield that did not do enough in ‘24 and ‘25.

Those draft classes should have yielded more.

For a team to have a five-to-seven-year run contending for titles, it has to develop its own players and enjoy their services while they’re in their 20s, before they become unrestricted free agents.

The Rangers did not do enough of that, which is why, more than avoiding free agency in 2025, no one expects them to contend for much here in 2026.

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