Heat half empty: Unmet expectations fueling a season of regression

MIAMI — All the perspective that is needed about where the Heat stand at the All-Star break starts here: The overarching goal going into this season was to be better positioned this season than last season, to avoid a third consecutive trip to the play-in round. Last season, the Heat stood 30-25 at the break; this season the record at the break is 25-28.

So, yes, worse, arguably far worse than even worst-case scenarios might have forecast. To match last season’s 46-36 finish would require a 21-8 run the rest of the way.

That appears highly unlikely.

While there have been positives this season, as articulated in the first part of this two-part series, this time a look of where and how it has gone south, how the goal of escaping the play-in has turned into the battle to potentially merely maximize seeding in the play-in round.

So as the Heat prepare to resume their schedule with Friday night’s road game against the Toronto Raptors, after previously chronicling in this series what has gone right, this time the not-so-good.

— 1. Limited support: Throughout training camp and the preseason, Erik Spoelstra consistently cited the depth of talent on his roster.

Then reality at home for the Heat and the team’s coach.

Terry Rozier has been so off his game that he potentially could find himself out of the rotation when the Heat return.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has had such a drop-off from his rookie season that it exceeds even what might have been anticipated with a sophomore slump.

Nikola Jovic, while having his moments at times, also has had enough erratic moments to question his role as a rotation player.

Instead, it very well could be the three players acquired at the NBA trading deadline for Jimmy Butler who wind up salvaging the rotation, hardly the expectation entering the season.

— 2. Adebayo’s regression: The recent move to power forward alongside Kel’el Ware appears to be helping. But the regression in Adebayo’s offensive game has turned him into a player elite only on one end.

To a degree, it is not all on the Heat center, with the encouragement ahead of season to attempt to take his game beyond the 3-point arc. Those attempts, while coming around in recent games, have drained the overall shooting percentage and taken Adebayo out of the paint on offense.

On a team that can’t score, more is needed.

From last season’s .521 field-goal percentage, Adebayo is down to .471. From last season’s effective field-goal percentage of .529, the drop is to .500. From last season’s true shooting percentage of .576, the drop has been to .539. Even the 2-point percentage has dipped, from .528 to .512.

— 3. The Butler wait: Having chronicled in the first part of this series how the Heat, to a degree, were able to withstand the two months of Jimmy Butler‘s sandbagging and sass, the reality is it also created an entirely disjointed season.

At the moment, the math can be seen as relatively basic: the Heat are three games under .500 and 0-4 since trading Butler.

It can be difficult to flip the switch from two months of tumult to two months of make or break.

No matter where this winds up, the stench of the Butler episode will linger, and for more than the arbitration case for the actual salary lost from his three team suspensions.

— 4. Growing pains: For all there is to be said about multitasking, it still remains a delicate balance between trying to establish a future while maintaining relevance in the moment.

A prime example is the decision to insert Ware into the starting lineup. As a move for the future, there is plenty to be said for the playing time for last June’s first-round pick.

But in the moment, there have been times when Ware has been overwhelmed by more experienced and bulkier opponents.

It is a trade-off that is worthwhile when there is wiggle room. Now there is none. It is possible that Kevin Love soon could be warming up in the bullpen.

— 5. The all-or-nothing risk: Granted, the Heat did not see this type of season coming, or at least this type of play to the All-Star break. But the 2024-25 risks have always been severe.

Yes, if the Heat do not make the playoffs, they would keep their own lottery pick. And this year’s draft is loaded.

The problem is that if the Heat do fall into the lottery this year then their 2026 first-round pick goes unprotected to the Oklahoma City Thunder and their 2028 first-round pick unprotected to the Charlotte Hornets.

The irony is that, respectively, those two picks were sent out for none other than Butler and Rozier.

That arguably casts the balance of the Heat’s draft future in the remaining balance of this season.