Analysis: SuperSonics' biggest hurdle remaining and possible next steps

NEW YORK — When the chatter about potential NBA expansion first started to bubble, the list of issues the league needed to work through were clear.

A new collective bargaining agreement needed to be reached. A new national media rights deal needed to be finalized. Even when the sale for one of the most prominent franchises in the league became a possibility, it was obvious that had to get settled before there could be real expansion conversations.

Even with those factors out of the way another Board of Governors meeting passed on Thursday without movement on the expansion front, creating more frustration from fans and more uncertainty about the timeline of a possible SuperSonics return.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver spoke directly about some of the reasons expansion is still being tabled. Let’s break down some of what Silver said, including a new topic that could be the biggest reason there was no action this time around.

More media rights?

Local media rights ranks low on the list of concerns for casual observers when it comes to a league looking to expand its footprint and potentially collect billions in expansion fees. It’s not a sexy topic. It’s not something that will drive conversation for fans until it impacts the bottom line or their ability to watch their favorite teams.

So it was notable when Silver made mention of it as a mitigating factor that might need to be solved either before or in unison with an expansion process. He acknowledged this was not an issue he expected to need to tackle when he said last September that expansion would be addressed before the end of this season.

“I’d just add the last component, which also is giving me just a bit of pause, is that we’d like to have a better sense of where we’re going with local media,” Silver said when first asked about expansion. “Bill Koenig is here, our head of media. He made a fairly lengthy presentation to the board on that. It’s well known that we’ve seen some significant declines there. Virtually two-thirds of our teams are now dealing with RSNs (regional sports networks) that recently experienced bankruptcies or have shut down.

“I think while we understand the national media landscape now, to the extent we’re looking at expansion domestically, I think we’d really like to understand what that opportunity for local media is, because it’s a pretty critical component of our teams’ economics.”

Is this the NBA moving the goal posts on the expansion timeline? Or is it a truly significant issue that needs to be taken into account by the NBA and anyone considering an unprecedented investment to join the league?

It’s a topic sports fans in Seattle should be familiar with because of the decisions by teams in other leagues.

Last fall, the Kraken launched their own network and left behind the RSN model by going with the combo of an over-the-air broadcaster (KING and KONG) paired with a streaming partner (Amazon Prime) in an effort to get more games in front of fans’ eyeballs.

The Mariners, as majority owners of ROOT Sports, have seen issues pop up in recent years with the combo of cord-cutters and cable providers. The Mariners announced a direct-to-consumer streaming option before the start of this season.

For a time, these regional sports networks were massive money producers for franchises across all leagues outside of the NFL. That’s no longer the case.

“I’d say from a local standpoint there’s enormous confusion out there. I think because, as I said earlier, you have bankruptcies of RSNs, other RSNs that have shut down, and I think that’s created, for lack of a better term, a lot of transactional friction of people who would otherwise be interested,” Silver said. “At the same time, well-known streaming services that only a year ago were saying they had no interest in live sports are now aggressively bidding on live sports. So we see no reason why to the extent there’s that interest on a national basis or even a global basis there wouldn’t also be on a local basis.”

To parse what Silver is saying: The NBA might want a clearer idea of what the local media situation might look like before it starts cutting its broader revenue pie by one or two more pieces.

So what’s the timeline now?

This was the last scheduled full Board of Governors meeting before the end of the NBA season. The next time owners are expected to gather is during the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas in mid-July. Last year, that meeting focused heavily on the league’s national media rights package. This year, it could be franchise sales taking the forefront with more details expected to emerge on the Boston Celtics sale and potentially a final resolution on the sale of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Next would be what’s become an annual meeting in September — the same meeting last year Silver said he expected to make progress on expansion before the end of this season. It may now be the target to see some traction on the topic as traditionally the owners don’t meet again before the end of the calendar year.

The belief remains that some type of progress on expansion will happen before the end of the calendar year. Maybe that’s what Silver should have said back in September 2024.

Could there be a staggered start?

The NBA has gone with an odd number of teams in the past. It’s not optimal. But it is possible. The NHL did the same when Vegas was added and played with 31 teams for four seasons before the Kraken arrived.

While Seattle and Las Vegas appear the clear front-runners if and when NBA expansion happens, Seattle appears more ready. Which made this comment from Silver notable where he made a clear delineation of 31 or 32 teams.

“Part of it, as I said, is trying to assess value in a way that’s both fair, even to a potential owner, and fair to the existing owners in terms of what it means to add additional partners, different cities, divide up our current media pie with the 31st or 32nd share, and also, we want to make sure we put teams in a position, particularly as we’re setting the price, to be in a position to be competitive, economically successful and just as important for the other teams, successful on the floor,” Silver said.

Is it genuine?

Look around social media and in story comments, and anytime Silver’s name is brought up with expansion or associated with Seattle, the words that follow are usually filled with some level of frustration or vitriol.

But there does seem to be some genuineness about the overtures toward Sonics fans. For example, Silver’s most direct comments about Seattle came from a question about expansion but didn’t mention the city specifically.

“I will speak directly to Seattle,” Silver said.

Several other league officials speaking informally recalled memories of enjoyable times in the past being in Seattle for games and some guarded hope it could happen again.

For now it’s more waiting, which as Tom Petty once sang, is the hardest part.