Duke, the No. 1 overall seed in the entire NCAA Tournament, came very close to losing to No. 16 Siena on Thursday in the NCAA Tournament.

Trailing by 11 points at halftime and losing for most of the game, Duke needed a late surge to win, 71-65, and avoid the third “16 vs. 1” upset in tournament history. Duke coach Jon Scheyer said he and his staff got outcoached by Siena’s Gerry McNamara, and he was dead right. Duke didn’t look prepared for the first 20 minutes.

“Toughest moment, toughest game, toughest position I’ve ever been in, in the tournament,” Scheyer said.

So what does this say about Duke, which was favored by 28.5 points?

That the Blue Devils are vulnerable, first of all. As we saw in the ACC Tournament, Duke can win without the two starters it’s missing, but it no longer can win games easily. The offensive production was too lopsided Thursday, the defense was iffy, and the effort was not what it should be for the college basketball tournament you supposedly wait your entire lives to play.

Said Cameron Boozer, who ended up with 22 points and 13 rebounds: “I think we really didn’t come out ready to play today, and we’ve got to be a lot better moving forward. ... The first half, we came out flat. Not much energy, not much defensive presence.”

What Thursday doesn’t mean is that Duke is going to flame out for sure in this NCAA Tournament — the Blue Devils play in the second round vs. ninth-seeded TCU on Saturday. There are countless examples of teams who survive a close early-round game and go on to win the championship, including Michael Jordan’s UNC team of 1982 (a two-point win over James Madison) and many others.

“Look, I wish it could just be smooth sailing,” Scheyer said. “... We made some mistakes early that they made us pay for. All of a sudden, you want to win very badly. So you can start making plays to try to get back in the game that are probably uncharacteristic of who we’ve been.”

What surprised me most about Duke, though, was how poorly the Blue Devils played defense in the first half before 13,919 fans at a sold-out Bon Secours Wellness Arena. The Blue Devils are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and yet they gave up one basket in the paint after another.

Scheyer, interviewed on CBS during a timeout, stared daggers as he said: “You have to guard. They’re on pace for 50 points this half. You have to have the competitive spirit required to win.”

I watched in person the very first time a No. 16 beat a No. 1. It was in 2018, in Charlotte’s Spectrum Center, when 16th-seeded UMBC shocked No. 1 seed Virginia by 20 points.

UMBC did everything right that night, and every time it seemed like Virginia might make what you’d think would be an inevitable comeback, it didn’t happen. No. 1 seeds had been 135-0 against No. 16 seeds until that game; that made them 135-1. The magic wore off immediately — UMBC lost its next game — but for one night it was truly madness.

It happened once after that, too, when No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson upset No. 1 Purdue in 2023.

Siena — a small private school in Loudonville, N.Y. — channeled 2018-era UMBC in the first half. Ignoring the fact that Duke made its first four shots, the Saints played good defense, got hot from 3-point range and began to flabbergast a sellout crowd in Greenville.

Siena tied the game at 10. OK, it was a nice little story for a few minutes.

But wait, there was more.

Siena then went ahead, by two points, then six, then 11. Siena’s Gavin Doty, one of those guys you’ve never heard of who puts on a cape in March, looked for long stretches like the best player on the floor. He finished with 21 points.

And on the CBS broadcast, a phrase was uttered that I never thought I’d hear after a Duke basket: “Duke has cut the Siena lead to eight.” Like that was a big deal.

And it was. At halftime, Siena led 43-32, and college basketball fans around the country shook their heads in disbelief. This is what the NCAA Tournament is all about, they said to each other.

The second half?

Siena started out shooting 1 for 10 in that period, once missing two dunks on a single possession. Duke switched to a zone defense, which seemed to confound the Saints. The Blue Devils roared back, slicing the 11-point lead to 47-45. It felt like it was all going away quickly for Siena, a team that went 4-28 only two years ago.

But Siena managed to withstand that run and somehow kept the lead. Siena had five iron men playing, though — the Saints never took anyone out until the final 10 seconds. And those five Saints were getting tired — Duke got four shots on a single possession before cutting the lead to 61-60 on an Isaiah Evans layup.

From there, Duke finally pulled away. Siena couldn’t rebound and could no longer shoot in the second half, going 8 for 34. The Saints had marched in, all right, but the march faltered 100 yards short of the finish line.

“I don’t think I’ve ever been more proud of any group of kids I’ve been around,” McNamara said. “I think the world and college basketball saw what I’ve been so grateful and thankful to be around all season.”

At the end, after Duke had won, Scheyer took a stat sheet, took a look at it and crumpled it up. It wasn’t one to frame.

The Blue Devils had survived.

But their days of scaring anyone in this tournament are over.

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