Greg Cote's Thursday night NFL pick

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on Sep 17, 2025

Published in Football

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 3 THURSDAY PICK

DOLPHINS (0-2) at BILLS (2-0)

Line: BUF by 11 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 30-20.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Thursday, Prime Video.

NFL’s kickoff to Week 3 seems at a glance like a mismatch. But the comically extreme national overreaction of most media, fans and small-plane renters to the Dolphins’ early season struggles is countered (somewhat) by a glimmer of betting reason reflected in the odds trend for Thursday night’s game in Buffalo. The line has trickled from 13 1/2 points to 12 1/2 to 11 1/2 as money leans in on the Fins staying close, at least. I concur with this. Miami is a deeply flawed team, but after a shockingly inept opener at Indy played much better in a narrow loss to New England. And history shows dogs getting double-digit points are a better bet when it’s a division rivalry. To wit, last November in Orchard Park, N.Y., the Bills needed a 61-yard field goal with five seconds left to win 30-27. Neither team has owned Thursdays. Miami is 6-7 all time and Buffalo 4-6 on that night. Bills lead 2-1 head-to-head on TNF. As for an outright upset here, let’s not get carried away. Buffalo has won six straight and 13 of past 14 in series — and nine in a row in western New York. Dolphins would need to pack a miracle for the trip to win, but only pack some pride and fight to stay close. The weather Thursday night is forecast as a football-perfect high 60s. No snow, so the usual built-in excuse isn’t there. Dolphins also catch a bit of a break with Bills defensive injuries. DT Ed Oliver (ankle) has been in a walking boot and is out, as is top LB Matt Milano. Those injuries can’t but help as Miami desperately tries to flex a ground game so defenses can’t drop seven in coverage, as the Patriots did all of Sunday. De’Von Achane has been good on the catch out of the backfield, but it would be better if he should have a 20-carry, 100-plus-yards type of game running the ball. Fins suffer from poor cornerback play and a shaky o-line; if they continue to also suffer from a ground game producing the NFL’s fourth-lowest yards per game, Tua Tagovailoa will remain under the gun. Zero run threat himself, Tagovailoa intensely needs run production from Achane — as much as I need a turnover-free game from Tua to smile on this pick. I see Miami flying home 0-3 as the flames under coach Mike McDaniel and GM Chris Grier rise from ankles to shins. But I also see Dolphins flying home after a hard fight, not embarrassed.

(Note: Betting line courtesy ESPNBet as of midday Wednesday.)