Chris Perkins: Without a big finish by Dolphins, McDaniel-Tua duo must go

Here’s a question for Dolphins owner Stephen Ross: What are you hoping to achieve in 2026 if you bring back the duo of coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa?

That’s not asked in an angry or smart-alecky tone. It’s asked in a neutral, businesslike tone.

The Dolphins can’t make ex-general manager Chris Grier the fall guy for everything that failed. The general manager’s job is to collect talent, and Grier gave McDaniel the best talent this franchise had in two decades. McDaniel, who has a 31-30 (.508) regular-season record, wasn’t able to win.

Going a step further, Tua wasn’t able to lead the team to significant wins.

So I ask Ross: what would be the point, aside from finances, of bringing the McDaniel-Tua duo back?

I was thinking about coach-QB duos the other day.

It occurred to me that the McDaniel-Tua era, now in Year 4, resembles Minnesota’s four-year stretch of coach Mike Zimmer and quarterback Kirk Cousins (2018-21) in its mediocrity.

The Vikings went 33-31-1 (.515) in the regular season and made one playoff appearance. In other words, they had one good year, the 10-6 season of 2019, but otherwise were .500ish. It’s kind of the same as the McDaniel-Tua Dolphins. Yes, they’ve made two playoff appearances. But the similarity is they’ve had one good year, that being the 11-6 season of 2023, and the others are .500ish.

You could maintain the equalizer for the two playoff appearances is that Zimmer-Cousins produced a playoff win in 2019, defeating New Orleans, 26-20, in overtime. But whatever. Zimmer, who was Minnesota’s coach for eight years (2014-21), was fired after the 2021 season.

Thinking along a different path about coach-QB duos, the 2025 season will presumably be the fourth year for McDaniel-Tua without a playoff win. If they return in 2026 you can almost be certain, but not totally certain, that streak will extend to a fifth year with no playoff victory. A couple of coach-QB duos of varying success levels came to mind for five-year unions, one with a playoff victory and the other without a playoff victory.

Dallas ended the five-year run of coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Dak Prescott after last season. They were together from 2020-24. They wrapped losing seasons in 2020 and 2024 around three consecutive 12-win seasons and playoff appearances (2021-23), during which they collected two NFC East titles and one playoff win, that coming in 2022. Overall, that wasn’t good enough for a five-year stretch, however, so McCarthy was fired.

Cincinnati had the duo of coach Marvin Lewis and quarterback Andy Dalton from 2011-18. In the five-year stretch between 2011-15 they made five consecutive playoff berths, amassing four double-digit win seasons, and winning the AFC North twice. But they never won a playoff game. Lewis was fired after the 2018 season.

The point here is that Year 5 of McDaniel-Tua most likely won’t be better than Year 4. It’ll probably be worse. In most cases you’ve already peaked after Year 4. McDaniel-Tua has a crowning achievement of back-to-back playoff appearances. There’s no division title. There’s only one double-digit win season. That’s not likely to change soon. Coach-QB duos with lofty expectations don’t usually last this long with such meager results.

This is why the Dolphins’ rebuild must start in 2026, not 2027. McDaniel should go first. Then, make Tua a post-June 1 cut, spread the $99 million of financial pain over two years ($67 million of dead money in 2026, $32 million in 2027), and get on with life.

I’ll cite the stat I’ve tracked since December 2022 — the Dolphins entered this season 4-16 versus playoff teams in the McDaniel era. As is, they’re 1-4 against playoff teams this year, defeating Buffalo but losing to Buffalo, Indianapolis, the Los Angeles Chargers and New England. So that’s 5-20 (.200) versus playoff teams in the McDaniel era.

And while expressing concerns, I’ll admit that I’ve got other concerns about the McDaniel-Tua duo aside from their futility against quality opponents.

They don’t win enough games in December and January (7-10, .412).

They don’t win enough road games (11-20, .355).

They have no magic.

Enough is enough.

There is an escape hatch, however.

If McDaniel and Tua want to have a conversation about returning in 2026 they should be required to finish at least 5-2 in their final seven games, including winning one of the final two. A 6-1 finish would be more convincing.

For McDaniel and Tua to have even a slim hope to return, they must level up. They must demonstrate, while finishing at least 8-9, and preferably 9-8, that they can do special things. Show some magic.

You expect McDaniel and Tua to lead the Dolphins (3-7) to wins against Washington (3-7), New Orleans (2-8) and the New York Jets (2-7).

Beating bad to so-so teams has been their specialty. Their failure is beating playoff-caliber teams.

Buffalo was a great start. But the success must be sustained.

McDaniel and Tua must lead the Dolphins to victory in late-season games against Pittsburgh (5-4) on Monday night (Dec. 15) on the road, and/or against Cincinnati (3-6) the following week (Dec. 21).

And most importantly they must beat Tampa Bay (Dec. 28) or New England (Jan. 3 or 4), two likely playoff teams. Do that, and there can be a conversation about returning.

If not, they both go after the season, McDaniel and Tua.

After all, Mr. Ross, if you’re hoping to replicate the Zimmer-Cousins era, relax, you’ve come close enough.