NFL DFS Week 14 optimal lineup

It’s December, so that means football weather is upon us.

A quick disclaimer to fellow San Diegans: weather is the thing that happens usually while we sleep or like a half dozen other times throughout the year. May Gray, June Gloom and Fogust don’t really qualify.

In other, more unfortunate places people live, where they actually experience winter, there’s freezing temperatures, snow and strong winds. Like in Green Bay, Buffalo and Cleveland this week.

Even in places like Florida, where winter is generally milder, December can bring cold fronts with plenty of rain and wind. Like Tampa Bay or Jacksonville, where there’s a possibility for thunderstorms and heavier rain on Sunday.

Fantasy football enthusiasts are constantly asking me this time of year if they should bench their quarterbacks or receivers based on the forecast? My reply is only the most extreme weather truly impacts a player’s performance: a blizzard, a monsoon or 40-50 mile per hour wind gusts.

The truth is rain or snow usually impacts a defense significantly more because an offense knows where it’s going.

Instead of staying glued to the Weather Channel, or sliding in my DMs, take inspiration from “All the President’s Men” and follow the money.

If a game total starts to fall as the week progresses, that means sharps are placing bets on the weather, and you should act accordingly.

Otherwise, unlock your inner San Diegan, and don’t worry about the weather.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for today’s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The optimal lineup has netted $120 this season, so I’m in the red $125 with an average score of 134.33 points through 13 weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

— Week 1: 95.52

— Week 2: 124.90

— Week 3: 181.44

— Week 4: 142.88

— Week 5: 162.24

— Week 6: 117.24

— Week 7: 116.46

— Week 8: 158.26

— Week 9: 146.94

— Week 10: 114.44

— Week 11: 118.68

— Week 12: 147.58

— Week 13: 119.72

Week 14 lineup

— QB: Jayden Daniels, Commanders ($6,000)

If Washington is willing to play its franchise quarterback at Minnesota in the midst of a lost season after he dislocated his left elbow in Week 9, then so am I. The Vikings play two high coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (66.4%). According to Fantasy Pros, Daniels ranks first in passer rating, and seventh in yards per attempt against two high. Against Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense, Daniels also likely approaches his ceiling in rushing yards, which is why I’m fine playing him à la carte.

— RB: James Cook III, Bills ($7,800)

Cook has averaged 24.5 DraftKings points in wins this season, and Buffalo is the home favorite (-5 1/2) in the highest game total (52 1/2) of the week.

— RB: Bucky Irving, Buccaneers ($7,000)

Irving wasn’t eased back in last week after being out since Week 4 with foot and shoulder injuries. He finished with 19 touches, including all three of Tampa Bay’s red zone rushing attempts. The Bucs are big home favorites (-8 1/2), so I anticipate the volume staying steady. According to Fantasy Pros, the Saints have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-most yards before contact per attempt since Week 9.

— WR: Tee Higgins, Bengals ($6,200)

I almost built this lineup around a Joe Burrow double-stack with Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. Cincinnati will likely be pursuing points against Josh Allen and the Bills on Sunday, but Daniels’ upside as a runner won me over. Most of the field will include Chase and his sky-high ceiling as the bring-back in their Allen or Cook builds, but I’m seeking leverage with Higgins, who should fly under the radar in a difficult matchup, coming off a concussion. He’s always an elite GPP play and is projected for single digit ownership in the highest game total of the week.

— WR: Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars ($5,700)

Meyers has essentially operated as the “Chris Godwin” in Liam Coen’s scheme since he was traded to Jacksonville. The Colts have utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (62.3%) since Week 10. According to Fantasy Pros, Meyers has had a 23.1% target share and a 29.6% first-read share against single high since he’s been with the Jaguars.

— WR: Michael Wilson, Cardinals ($5,600)

There’s a good argument to be made that every lineup should include at least one of Wilson, Trey McBride or the Rams’ defense this week with Arizona as a big home underdog (+9 1/2), and Marvin Harrison Jr. and Greg Dortch both out. The only way Wilson or McBride (who is priced up to $8,000 this week) doesn’t produce something viable is if the offense fails completely, and if the offense lays an egg, you’re going to want the Rams’ D.

— TE: Tyler Warren, Colts ($5,000)

This is Warren’s lowest price tag since Week 6, and the Jaguars are allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

— FLEX: Dawson Knox, Bills ($2,800)

It doesn’t look like Dalton Kincaid (hamstring/knee) will return this week, so that leaves Knox to be the latest tight end to take advantage of the Bengals’ baby linebackers. Cincinnati has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs AND tight ends this season. A Cook-Knox skinny stack could be the skeleton key to unlock this slate.

— DST: Cleveland Browns ($3,700)

I’m either starting the Browns’ or the Broncos’ defense in all my lineups this week. They’re the top two teams in producing sacks this season and will face the two teams (Titans and Raiders) who take the most sacks in the NFL. If there were an option to just take Myles Garrett, I’d consider it. Garrett has 15 sacks and three forced fumbles in his last six games.