TAMPA, Fla.— The offense is meh. The defense is even worse.

In a world of playoff contenders, how is it that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the driver’s seat when they average fewer yards per play than the Arizona Cardinals or Cincinnati Bengals? How come, if defense truly wins championships, the Bucs have given up more points than the Cleveland Browns or New Orleans Saints?

What plausible path to the playoffs exists for a team that has been outscored by an average of nearly two points per game?

Well, the horror that is the NFC South is, as usual, the biggest reason.

But, in a more generous telling, there is one thing the Bucs have done exceptionally well in 2025:

They’ve held on to the football.

Through 14 games, Tampa Bay has had only 11 turnovers. If the Bucs continue on that pace through the final three games, they will finish with 13, which would shatter the franchise record. The previous low for turnovers was 17, and that was in a 16-game season in 2020. You might recall, that was the season a guy named Tom Brady showed up and Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl.

So, yeah, there is reason for huzzahs and high-fives when it comes to Tampa Bay’s discipline with turnovers.

The simplest explanation is to point at Baker Mayfield and say he hasn’t been as reckless as in previous seasons. A year ago, he led the NFL in interceptions, but Mayfield now has one of the 10 lowest interception rates in the league.

Good for him, right? In some ways, yes. In others, perhaps not.

Even without Mike Evans on the field for much of the season, Mayfield has thrown a higher percentage of deep passes (20 yards and beyond) than last season and has a far lower interception rate on those throws. You might argue that new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard has put Mayfield in a better position to succeed when pushing the ball downfield, or you might suggest Mayfield has been less reckless.

Pro Football Focus has a different explanation.

The analytical website charts every play and has a statistic called “turnover-worthy passes,” which basically means balls that could or should have been intercepted. Mayfield’s rate of turnover-worthy plays is higher this season than at any point in his career. The inference is that he’s been fortunate that he hasn’t had more passes picked off than the seven interceptions he’s actually thrown.

Grizzard recently suggested that some of Mayfield’s interceptions were not his fault. Balls either bounced out of a receiver’s hands, or the receiver ran the wrong route and hung Mayfield out to dry. That’s entirely accurate. But there is a whole other set of throws that defensive backs could have easily picked off, but instead failed to complete the interception.

Pro Football Reference also says Mayfield has had a higher percentage of “bad” throws than in his previous two seasons in Tampa Bay.

So, do you trust the raw numbers, or do you put faith in the analytics? Perhaps you just believe your own eyes.

Regardless of the explanation, the result has been the same. The Bucs are not giving up as many cheap scores with fumbles and interceptions. Their 11 turnovers have been converted into 38 points for the opposition. It’s not a dramatic difference, but opponents scored 57 points off Tampa Bay turnovers in 2024.

Or, the simplest way to explain it:

The Bucs are 6-1 when they do not have a turnover. They are 1-6 in every other game. If you want to go a step farther, the Bucs are 0-6 in games that Mayfield throws an interception.

Whether injuries have played a role on offense or a lack of talent on defense, the bottom line is the Bucs have not been good enough to overcome mistakes.

It’s helped that the Tampa Bay defense has forced more turnovers this season than in 2024, but the results haven’t been as dramatic. The Bucs have takeaways in 10 games and are 5-5. They’ve had four games with zero takeaways and are 2-2.

The point is, the Bucs are capable of beating anyone if Mayfield and Co. zealously protect the football. They’ve beaten playoff contenders such as Houston, Seattle and San Francisco in part because they were turnover-free in those games. They’ve also lost to teams with losing records like Atlanta and New Orleans because interceptions were converted into touchdowns.

What does this all mean in the season’s final three weeks?

The Panthers and Dolphins are both average defensive teams with an average number of takeaways. Avoid interceptions, avoid fumbles, avoid special teams blunders, and the Bucs have a strong chance of repeating as division champs.

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