Greg Cote's NFL divisional playoff picks

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on Jan 16, 2026

Published in Football

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

Our 34th season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald hit the postseason with mixed results, only 3-3 straight-up but a solid 4-2 against the betting line — including a pair of dogs-with-points covers by the victorious 49ers and in a loss by the Panthers. Six games down in the Super Bowl tournament and seven still to go, with the AFC and NFC championship game matchups to be determined this weekend.

———

— Week 1 playoffs: 3-3, .500 overall; 4-2, .667 against the spread.

— Final season: 175-96, .646 overall; 131-135-5, .493 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

— — —

GREG COTE’S NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS

AFC PLAYOFFS

No. 6 seed BILLS (13-5) at No. 1 BRONCOS (14-3)

Line: DEN by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 23-17.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS.

Upset! Denver is the No. 1 seed, rested off a bye week, strong at Mile High (8-1 this season), and yet negligibly favored by less than the usual home-field number. Sean Payton surely will be dealing the Disrespect card to his team, but there’s a reason this is a near pick-‘em game. Buffalo showed in winning in Jax last week that it isn’t to be dismissed as a Super Bowl contender in a wide-open AFC final four. Bills have an injured decimated wide receivers room, but Bills also have the NFL rushing leader, an under-regarded defense especially against the pass ... and Josh Allen, who will be the most impactful player on the field. Buffs eliminated Denver from last year’s playoffs, 31-7. Much closer here, but history repeats because, well, who do you trust more: Allen or Bo Nix? You will find my answer in this pick.

No. 5 TEXANS (13-5) at No. 2 PATRIOTS (15-3)

Line: NE by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: NE, 20-16.

TV: 3 p.m. Sunday, ESPN/ABC.

Houston crushed Pittsburgh, 30-6, last week, almost literally chasing Aaron Rodgers into likely retirement and coach Mike Tomlin into a TV booth or to another team. With less fanfare, New England just as impressively dominated the L.A. Chargers and Justin Herbert, 16-3. This is to say the Texans’ defense earns all the credit it gets, but Mike Vrabel’s D doesn’t get enough love and will show why it should on Sunday at home. In a game with two strong defenses, I trust Drake Maye and his offense more than I do C.J. Stroud and his — especially with HOU’s top WR Nico Collins (as of Thursday) seeming likely out with a concussion. New England still is out to prove it is as good as its record, with this point spread an indication of lingering doubts. Pats will earn some of that missing respect here.

NFC PLAYOFFS

No. 6 seed 49ERS (13-5) at No. 1 SEAHAWKS (14-3)

Line: SEA by 7.

Cote’s pick: SEA, 27-21.

TV: 8 p.m. Saturday, Fox.

Top-seeded Seattle, off a bye week, is the biggest favorite in this round. Part of that is a clearly superior defense that humbled San Francisco 13-3 in the regular-season finale. And part of that is San Fran being a M.A.S.H. unit with all its injuries, the latest erasing TE George Kittle. The 49ers’ coach should be Hawkeye Pierce. (Google it, kids.) Still, Niners showed the fight it has left in eliminating reigning champion Philly last week 23-19. Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy have a combined 24 interceptions, so mistakes could swing this result. In any case I like Seattle at home, but the Frans and Christian McCaffrey with the points. That’s especially if Niners star LB Fred Warner heroically returns from injury. Seemed impossible even a few weeks ago, but, sometimes, playoffs + desperation = man-made miracles.

No. 5 RAMS (13-5) at No. 2 BEARS (12-6)

Line: LAR by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: LAR, 30-20.

TV: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

The dome team from L.A. is facing one of the coldest games in NFL history Sunday night, with the kickoff temp projected around 7 degrees. That gives Chicago a fighting chance. Not sure much else does. Ben Johnson’s “good, better, best” battle cry is fun, but his Bears are overachievers who needed a late choke by Green Bay last week and whose end is at hand. The Rams didn’t impress a lot in ousting Carolina, 34-31, last week, but that offense did. Matthew Stafford has had an MVP-type season, and Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are A grade weapons. Chitown’s defense won’t handle that, especially a Bears pass defense that’s the worst of any team still standing. Unless the weather proves severe enough to play an equalizer here, the Rams could tip this one into rout territory.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.)