Tails never fails: Coin toss one of most popular Super Bowl 60 prop bets

Todd Dewey, Las Vegas Review-Journal on Feb 6, 2026

Published in Football

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LAS VEGAS — Tails never fails.

That’s the mantra of some Super Bowl coin toss prop bettors who cashed tickets on tails in last year’s NFL title game and in eight of the last 12 Super Bowls. The coin toss has come up tails in 31 of 59 Super Bowls overall.

“A 31-28 split is exactly what randomness predicts,” Tim Chartier, an applied mathematician who specializes in sports analytics, told Covers.com.

Despite a flip of the coin being a true toss-up based purely on chance, the Super Bowl coin toss is one of the most popular prop bets among thousands of options.

In fact, the outcome of the coin toss is the eighth-most bet Super Bowl market at BetMGM, where it has drawn more bets than any individual player prop in Sunday’s game between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots.

“It’s a fun bet for everyone,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “It’s simple, people understand it, it’s quick action, and you’re literally getting a 50-50 roll for your bet.

“It actually writes decent money on it. There’ll be a ton of money on it both ways.”

Before the 2024 Super Bowl kicked off in Las Vegas, a Caesars Sportsbook bettor won a $100,000 wager on the coin toss to land on tails.

“The cool thing is it’s a prop that you can win or lose before the opening kickoff,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Last year, we actually took a few mid-five-figure wagers on the coin toss. We had a little sweat before the game even kicked. We were fortunate enough to win it.

“All these props are the game within the game. This prop is the game before the game. It’s just another way to get people in action and have fun.”

Heads I win, tails you lose

Sportsbooks give bettors a break on the coin toss by offering reduced juice. Instead of the standard -110 ($110 to make $100), books offer juice ranging from -101 at the Westgate to -103 at other shops.

At BetMGM, 51% of the tickets are on heads and 49% are on tails, while 63% of the money is on heads and 37% is on tails.

There are other coin toss prop bet options, including which team will win the coin toss (-103) and will the coin toss be called correctly (-103).

Caesars offers eight coin toss specials that pay plus prices: Seahawks win toss and win game at +165; Heads/Seahawks win game +175; Tails/Seahawks win game +175; Patriots win toss/Seahawks win game +185; Patriots win toss/win game +440; Heads/Patriots win game +450; Tails/Patriots win game +450; and Seahawks win toss/Patriots win game +460. For what it’s worth, the team that wins the coin toss is only 25-34 (42.4 percent) in the Super Bowl, including an eight-game losing streak from 2015 to 2022.

“If you focus on a specific starting point, the probability of losing eight in a row is 1 in 256,” Chartier said. “A better question is broader: What is the probability that somewhere within the 59 Super Bowls played so far, an eight-game losing streak occurs?

“About 10 percent. That’s not common, but it’s also not wildly improbable.”

The Patriots are 0-3 when they win the Super Bowl coin toss, and the Seahawks are 1-2.