PITTSBURGH — At the beginning of this season, the Penguins harbored what felt like legitimate hopes of making the postseason.

They finished 2023-24 with a 10-5-3 kick but ceded too much ground early. By September 2024, several significant players had gotten healthy. There was also a renewed sense of urgency, a belief that what transpired over those final 18 games could continue.

"The last two seasons haven't been fun," Evgeni Malkin said. "We don't want a long summer again. We want to play in the playoffs."

Sorry, Geno. Despite what was a genuinely impressive showing on Thursday, I'm pretty sure that's not happening. Assuming the Penguins don't rip off some sort of miraculous run, this will mark the first time since the franchise's "X Generation Era" of the early 2000s that the Penguins have sat out three consecutive postseasons.

The reality of that began to set in this past week. It also got me thinking about how our consumption of Penguins games should change, as well as viable paths forward for president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas.

And, yes. I think he absolutely has one. If Dubas makes the right moves, the Penguins can retool or reboot fairly quickly. But it will require some aggression and things falling the right way for Dubas to thread what figures to be a tight needle and get them back to winning.

Before we get into that, though, the first step should be assessing reality.

'Confident in Kyle's vision'

I don't know if this group will ultimately finish last like that 20023-04 outfit. Despite the Penguins' first three-goal comeback victory of the season Thursday against the Flyers, only five clubs as of Friday morning had fewer points.

Let's hope there's no 18-game losing streak. I also doubt we'll see an advertising campaign featuring brooding, black-and-white images of players.

But the pivot here has been pretty clear, even if someone neglected to tell poor P.K. Subban.

The Penguins are the second-worst defensive team in the NHL. Their goaltending is a mess. They lack secondary scoring, and special teams have fallen off — among myriad other issues managing the puck, protecting leads and allowing head-scratching goals.

For Sidney Crosby to enjoy any sort of career coda, the biggest question has really become how quickly Dubas can execute an accelerated rebuild.

"We got involved with this because this is an incredible team with a great legacy, and our responsibility is to bring another Stanley Cup [to Pittsburgh]," Fenway Sports Group chairman Tom Werner said back in October. "We know we're in a transition period, but we're confident in Kyle's vision."

With 21 games to go — three before the NHL trade deadline arrives on next Friday afternoon — let's turn our attention to Dubas' task list, as well as why I think it will still be fun to follow this team down the stretch.

What can Dubas do?

Most immediate involves his limited flexibility around the trade deadline.

Ryan Graves doesn't have a regular roster spot, but he does have a 12-team no-trade list. So do Danton Heinen (12 teams), Tristan Jarry (12) and Noel Acciari (8). Hard to fathom. There are also the obvious ones in Crosby, Malkin, Kris Letang, Erik Karlsson and Bryan Rust, who have full trade protection.

Rust loses his trade protection this offseason, while Dubas — who actually started out in hockey working as an agent — has talked in the past about wanting to honor those clauses.

It doesn't allow for much. Right now, Dubas can dangle Anthony Beauvillier and Matt Grzelcyk, who have actually been solid pickups for the Penguins, but neither will move the needle.

The biggest move remains Rickard Rakell, who's enjoying a career year. On one hand, Rakell's value will probably never be higher. It's also tough to see how trading him would make the Penguins better. It also might upset Crosby.

Bottom line, bigger changes would almost assuredly have to come this offseason.

Revisit the plan

Speaking of those, the first should be finding an exit strategy with Jarry. His five-year, $26.875 million has been a disaster for which Dubas deserves blame. But it's time to cut bait, either via buyout or trade.

Another conversation Dubas must have involves Crosby, Malkin and Letang, together. They wanted this. It's not working.

Agreeing on a split could allow the Penguins to get younger around Crosby. Meanwhile, Malkin and Letang might find more competitive or enjoyable situations elsewhere. Those trades could potentially accelerate Dubas' timeline for a rebuild.

"For me, I don't ever want to put a timeline on anything," Dubas said on Feb. 1. "Because our goal, based on the types of people we have in the locker room and how much they've meant to the city and the franchise, we want to operate as urgently as we can to return the team [back to contention]."

New faces

The onset of an actual rebuild doesn't mean the rest of the season will lack intrigue. Far from it, assuming you actually like hockey.

Pretty much as soon as they're ready, or close, Dubas must begin elevating young skaters such as Owen Pickering, Rutger McGroarty, Tristan Broz, Ville Koivunen, Vasily Ponomarev or Jack St. Ivany.

There are more, obviously. It's a fairly open-ended concept.

Results matter far less than experienced gained. Might as well start building toward something now.

I understand what assistant general manager Jason Spezza told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Matt Vensel about wanting guys to be fully ready by the time they're promoted. However, I think there's also value in giving those guys a taste of big-league playing time to take into the summer.

Bold Penguins

The biggest question facing the Penguins might be in goal. Dubas has a reputation for struggling in this area, and nothing that has transpired in Pittsburgh will dispel that notion.

Jarry's extension is obviously bad. Alex Nedeljkovic is a career backup and has been exposed. Joel Blomqvist hasn't looked ready. Sergei Murashov fascinates me and might be the real goalie of the future ... but has still only played six games in the AHL.

What to do?

I know it's crazy, but I'd seriously consider bringing up Jarry now. One way or another, it might help the Penguins. Seriously.

If he somehow figures it out and finishes the season on a hot streak, or he's even serviceable, he might have trade value, potentially saving Dubas the $2.7 million or so of cap space they'd lose on a buyout.

If Jarry stinks, it only enhances their odds in the draft lottery. We all know what happened the last time the Penguins missed out on the playoffs this many times in a row.

The other bigger play for Dubas involves Karlsson (team-high $10 million cap hit), either at the trade deadline or this offseason. For a rebuilding club, that's way too much, even if he does add some level of offense.

(My favorite Karlsson stat this season: He's second in expected goals for among all NHL defensemen 5-on-5 and third in expected goals-against. Hey, at least it's not boring!)

But Dubas is sitting on nearly $20 million when it comes to Karlsson, Graves and Jarry. The NHL salary cap is also increasing by $7.5 million in 2025-26, though that doesn't mean the Penguins are guaranteed to spend that amount.

That means ...

Future vision

There could and should be money available to retool this thing quickly, which is why I'm not sold on the fact that it will take three years.

It could be done quicker if prospects emerge, if the Penguins can solve their goaltending issues and if Dubas can do what FSG brought him here to do and summon some wizardry. He did it with Karlsson — it was just the wrong move. I also like what Dubas has done stockpiling draft picks: 29 over the next three years, 15 in the first three rounds.

But for grandma to really get in the fast lane, the Penguins must leverage every ounce of available cap space while simultaneously working to creating more. It won't be easy.

The entertaining part for me is that this is clearly Dubas' team and his problem to solve. He's being paid a lot of money over a lot of years to do a complicated thing. It might not be visually appealing at times. However, in a weird way, I'm actually sort of excited to see how it all plays out.

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