SAN JOSE, Calif. — Mass deportations could jolt the Bay Area economy, erode the region’s already shaky job market, undermine federal, state and property tax revenue, and dampen retail and restaurant spending, according to a new economic report.

Deportations of undocumented immigrants could erase up to 5.8% of the nine-county region’s gross domestic product, which totaled $1.15 trillion as of 2023, according to the report released Wednesday by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.

“The Bay Area could lose up to $67 billion in real GDP through direct labor losses and ripple effects across supplier networks and reduced household spending,” stated the report, which was prepared and written by Abby Raisz, a vice president of research with the Economic Institute.

Mass deportations could unleash long-term impacts on the Bay Area job market, the report warned.

“Layoffs, stagnant wages, and reduced opportunities would follow the removal of these workers,” the Economic Institute stated.

The report warning of ominous implications for the Bay Area employment market as a result of mass deportations arrives on the heels of a loss of 20,000 jobs in the region during 2025.

Plus, the Bay Area has lost a net total of 137,200 tech jobs over the most recent three years, including a loss of 27,300 tech jobs in the region in 2025, according to estimates from Beacon Economics.

Any widespread removal of undocumented workers from the region might also imperil $8.4 billion in annual tax revenue through diminished federal, state and property taxes, the Economic Institute estimated.

In the Bay Area, the impact of mass deportations could be particularly brutal, in the view of the Economic Institute.

Why? The Bay Area is home to more than 2.6 million immigrants, the Economic Institute noted. This includes 477,000 undocumented residents, the researchers estimated.

What’s more, undocumented individuals are employed in key Bay Area industries such as administrative support, waste management, construction, hotels, and restaurants.

“There could be a big impact on the labor supply in the Bay Area,” Raisz said in an interview with this news organization.

Multiple reports in the last year or two have raised economic storm warnings regarding the impact of mass deportations.

“Estimates suggest that mass deportations could reduce the (United States) gross domestic product by 2.6% to 6.2% over the next decade,” stated a March 2025 report by Rice University’s Baker Institute for Economic Policy.

That didn’t happen in 2025, however. Instead of shrinking, the national economy expanded by 3.8% in the second quarter, 4.4% in the third quarter, and by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The economy shrank by 0.7% in the January-through-March first quarter of 2025, but deportations weren’t underway on a mass scale yet in that time frame.

President Donald Trump’s administration claims that mass deportations can lift the economy in multiple ways, according to a January 2026 post by the White House.

Nevertheless, the Economic Institute report in the Bay Area points out that undocumented workers currently work in an array of jobs that some experts believe are difficult to fill.

“Undocumented workers represent 19% of the administrative support and waste management sector, which includes janitors, housekeepers, security and maintenance workers, 15% of accommodation and food services, and 13% of construction workers,” the Economic Institute stated in the report.

Undocumented workers earn an estimated $21.5 billion annually in the Bay Area, averaging about $61,200 per worker, the report found. The Econmoic Institute believes that these earnings generate $3.6 billion in federal income taxes, $1 billion in state income taxes, and $446 million in local property taxes.

After paying these taxes, undocumented households in the Bay Area retain about $16.5 billion in purchasing power, according to the report.

“The Bay Area has a lot to lose,” Raisz said.

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