Ford Motor Co. could face as much as a $1 billion earnings hit from the shutdown of an aluminum plant in New York after a fire last month, an Evercore ISI analyst said in a Wednesday investor note.

The Sept. 16 incident at Novelis Inc.'s Oswego, New York, plant is expected to take much of the plant down until the first quarter of 2026. It supplies roughly 40% of the aluminum sheet used in the U.S. auto industry, according to experts, and the F-Series pickup — which drives the Dearborn automaker's profit and is America's best-selling vehicle — uses plenty of it.

Ford shares were falling 1.3% on Wednesday afternoon after Reuters reported on the investor note from Evercore ISI. The stock fell 6% to $11.69 on Tuesday when the Wall Street Journal reported on the fire's impact on Ford and other automakers.

Ford decline to comment on Evercore ISI's note. The company has said it sources aluminum from multiple suppliers and is working to mitigate effects of the shutdown.

Evercore analyst Chris McNally estimated an operating earnings hit of $500 million to $1 billion from 20,000 to 50,000 lost F-Series models in November and December. Starting with the 2015 model year, Ford has built F-150s with an aluminum body.

"We believe this is largely a Ford issue, at this time being," McNally wrote, "although we are continuing to check knock-on effects for STLA and Toyota as well."

Ford in July reinstated an annual guidance, expecting 2025 operating income to be between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion. The fire is just the latest supply-chain challenge for the Blue Oval. The forecast included a $2 billion impact on adjusted operating profit this year from tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

Novelis is a subsidiary of India’s Hindalco Industries Ltd. The aluminum manufacturer and recycler has rolling plants in Europe, Brazil and South Korea. But imported aluminum into the United States is subject to a 50% tariff. A new plant in Alabama is expected to open next year.

Novelis has said it's taking steps to minimize the impact of the fire on customers, has activated its global manufacturing network and has partnered with industry peers to source material in efforts to address the gap in supply.

Ford's latest operating guidance was down from the forecast it suspended in the spring because of the import taxes. That had called for earnings of $7 billion to $8.5 billion. In 2024, Ford's operating profit was $10.2 billion. It will report third-quarter financial results on Oct. 23.

©2025 www.detroitnews.com. Visit at detroitnews.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.