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Hurricane Erin could bring 8-foot waves to Florida; NHC tracks 2 more Atlantic systems

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on

Published in Weather News

ORLANDO, Fla. — Hurricane Erin on Tuesday dropped down to a Category 2 hurricane as it headed north in the Atlantic, but prompted coastal advisories for Florida while the National Hurricane Center kept track of two tropical waves that could follow in Erin’s path.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. update, the center of Erin was located about 720 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and 665 miles southwest of Bermuda moving northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, falling from major hurricane status for the first time since Saturday.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne states the storm’s closest approach to Florida will be east of Cape Canaveral early Wednesday, so winds won’t be a factor.

“Nonetheless, significant coastal and boating effects will be felt here. Building swells from Hurricane Erin will lead to an ongoing high risk of rip currents along with breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet producing rough pounding surf with minor beach and dune erosion, particularly during the high tide cycles,” the NWS stated.

That comes between 5-7 a.m. and 5-7 p.m. with a high surf advisory for Volusia and Brevard’s coasts beginning at noon, and more expected to the south early Wednesday as Erin moves north of the protective Bahamas bank.

“Overall, there will be dangerous conditions at the local beaches and entering the surf is not advised,” the NWS stated.

Volusia County removed trash cans, portable toilets and other equipment from its beaches as a precaution. The county warned that tidal conditions could also affect the availability of beach driving.

Even as Erin ventures away, the beachside risk for Florida will remain, with a high risk of rip currents expected all week and likely into the weekend.

The hurricane itself is not expected to make landfall on its forecast path.

“A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected today, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on Thursday,” said NHC senior warning coordinator Robbie Berg. “On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday.”

Tropical storm warnings remain in place for the Turks and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas while tropical storm watches remained in place for the central Bahamas and the U.S. coast from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound. There is also a storm surge watch from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, forecast to get as high as 2-4 feet if surge coincides with high tide.

The NHC noted interests in the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and the U.S mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast should monitor the progress of Erin as additional tropical storm watches and warnings may be required later today.

The storm became the season’s first Atlantic hurricane at 11 a.m. Friday with 75 mph winds, but grew to a “catastrophic” Category 5 hurricane in just one day, undergoing rapid intensification that had sustained winds of up to 160 mph. It began to lose intensity late Saturday after pushing just north of the northern Leeward Islands.

Its path has shifted slightly west Tuesday from previous projections.

It had fluctuated up and down as a major hurricane through Tuesday morning before dropping back to Category 2 status.

“There are mixed signals on Erin’s future intensity. On one hand, more favorable environmental shear and upper-level divergence in 24-36 hours should support some re-intensification,” Berg said. “On the other hand, Erin’s slow motion and large size could lead to some upwelling of cooler water, and the hurricane’s broad structure could limit significant strengthening.”

Erin could remain a hurricane for five more days, but it it’s likely to begin interacting with a frontal boundary by Friday and become extratropical by Saturday.

 

Its growing wind field though, will be of more concern to the U.S. East Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 80 miles from its center while tropical-storm-force winds extend out 205 miles.

“This new forecast now brings tropical-storm-force winds very close to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast later this week,” Berg said. “Erin’s expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic.”

Trailing bands from Erin could bring 1-2 inches of rain across the Turks and Caicos and then the Bahamas through Tuesday night with some areas that could see up to 8 inches so that flash and urban flooding is a threat.

Life-threatening surf and rip conditions will grow along the U.S. East coast as well as Bermuda and Atlantic Canada as it heads north while tropical-storm conditions could be possible along North Carolina’s Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday.

Elsewhere, and of growing concern are a pair of tropical waves following on the heels of Hurricane Erin.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical advisory, the closer of the two was located approaching the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands in the central tropical Atlantic with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or weekend,” forecasters said. “This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday.”

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 60% in the next seven.

Farther east is a tropical wave a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands with a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development over the next couple of days as the system moves westward at around 15 mph,” forecasters said. “Towards the end of this week, this system could encounter a less favorable environment,limiting its development chances after that time.”

The NHC gave it a 30% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

If either system were to form into a named storm, it would become Tropical Storm Fernand. The next name on the Atlantic hurricane season list is Gabrielle.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently updated its season forecast, now calling for 13-18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.

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