For nearly a decade, Republicans with political aspirations have been haunted by a devastating possibility.

One day, President Donald Trump could publicly endorse a political rival.

That nightmare came true on Thursday for the GOPers eyeing the 2026 Florida governor’s race. Trump posted to Truth Social his “Complete and Total Endorsement” of a potential run by Naples-area U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds.

“Announcement coming soon!” Donalds posted to X in response.

Since 2018, Trump has endorsed in nearly 700 Republican primary races, according to data from the election tracking website Ballotpedia. His preferred candidates have won about 95% of those races. Gov. Ron DeSantis arguably won the post in the first place because of Trump’s endorsement.

With DeSantis term-limited from running a third time, some of the biggest names in Florida politics were rumored to be interested in a 2026 run, including former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz and first lady Casey DeSantis. Their path to the Governor’s Mansion just got a lot trickier.

“The race for governor is over,” said state Sen. Joe Gruters, a close Trump ally who earned the president’s endorsement in the 2026 race for chief financial officer.

Let’s break down the winners and losers from Trump’s endorsement. Where do they go from here?

Winner: Byron Donalds

This one is obvious. Trump picked Donalds to be the MAGA successor to the Florida throne. With Trump winning Florida by double digits in November, few think Democrats have much of a chance to reclaim the Governor’s Mansion in 2026.

In his Truth Social post, Trump lavished praise on Donalds for his policy positions on immigration, the military, the economy and gun rights.

Trump hinted at a potential endorsement earlier this week with a cryptic post touting a poll favorable to Donalds that came out in January. In that first post, Trump included a picture of a long list of prominent donors said to be supporting Donalds.

It included numerous Republicans close to Trump, including Trump administration officials. Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick to be secretary of the Treasury; Kelly Loeffler, who runs Trump’s Small Business Administration; and Brian Ballard, the prominent Florida lobbyist, were among the more than three dozen names.

Losers: The DeSantis family

In January, DeSantis posted that he planned to be deeply involved in the 2026 governor’s race.

The Florida Freedom Fund, a political committee supported by DeSantis that helped defeat ballot initiatives on marijuana and abortion in 2024, would get involved up and down the ballot, including in the governor’s race, DeSantis proclaimed.

“We need to elect strong leaders who will build off FL’s success and who will deliver on the promises made to voters,” DeSantis posted to X.

The strong conservative DeSantis was referencing may have been his wife, Casey. Earlier this month, reports surfaced about the first lady’s interest in the governor’s race. The DeSantis family has made plenty of friends among Florida’s donor class, with the governor proving a prolific fundraiser.

Casey DeSantis winning a term in the Governor’s Mansion would be massive for the family. Casey would be the first woman ever elected to the post and she’d get to make her mark on Florida government.

It would also mean four more years of relevance for Ron DeSantis, who showed an interest in higher office with his 2024 run for president.

Trump’s endorsement complicates all of that.

Winner(ish): Florida donors

Wilton Simpson, the Florida agriculture commissioner, controls political committees that are sitting on some $30 million.

Simpson has been mum, but the money is widely believed to be starter fuel for a potential run for governor. (Campaigns are expensive, but a guy running for agriculture commissioner 18 months from now doesn’t need $30 million.)

With Trump’s endorsement of Donalds, candidates like Simpson might think twice about entering the race. If the Republican primary proves noncompetitive, it could be great news for the pocketbooks of political donors.

Then again, others like Simpson or DeSantis or Gaetz might run anyway — regardless of Trump’s endorsement.

“What I think is going to happen is there will end up being a Trump slate of candidates versus a DeSantis slate,” said Gruters, who’s at times clashed with DeSantis in the state Senate.

Loser: Matt Gaetz

Gaetz is perhaps the most complicated figure in all of this. Trump showed a great deal of confidence in the Panhandle-area former U.S. representative by picking him to be U.S. attorney general. Even after Gaetz withdrew from consideration amid allegations of sexual misconduct, Trump remained a close ally.

Last month, Gaetz told the Tampa Bay Times he was interested in running for governor. A few weeks later, Trump publicly endorsed Donalds.

Gaetz could always run anyway. He’s beloved by the MAGA base. But Gaetz has also been highly complimentary of Donalds in the past. And he’s not displayed an eagerness to cross Trump.

“Byron is a great friend and this is a huge boost for his campaign. President Trump’s endorsement is the most powerful thing in American politics,” Gaetz texted a Tampa Bay Times reporter Friday morning.

When asked whether he was still eyeing a run for governor, Gaetz responded, “As President Trump often says: we’ll see!”

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