Who would voters support in 2028? What poll shows about Newsom, Vance and Trump

Brendan Rascius, Miami Herald on Sep 5, 2025

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom is emerging as an early front-runner for 2028, according to a new poll, which found him outstripping top Republicans and eclipsing party rivals.

In the latest YouGov/Yahoo survey, respondents were asked to choose between Newsom and Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 election match-up.

Forty-nine percent said they would vote for the Democratic governor, while 41% said they’d cast their ballots for the Republican vice president. An additional 10% said they weren’t sure.

The poll also pitted Newsom against Trump, who, while barred from being elected a third term by the U.S. Constitution, has said he may try to run again.

Here, the results were the same — 49% for Newsom and 41% for Trump, with 10% undecided.

The survey — which sampled 1,690 U.S. adults Aug. 29-Sept. 2 — also asked Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who they would like to see as the 2028 Democratic nominee, offering up a list of eight party leaders.

A plurality, 22%, said they are not sure. Behind this, came Newsom with 21% support.

He narrowly beat out a fellow Californian: former Vice President Kamala Harris, who garnered 19% support. Harris served as the party’s nominee in 2024, ultimately losing to Trump.

After them came New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who earned 12%, and former Transportation Sec. Pete Buttigieg, who earned 10%, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

The other contenders — including Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro — drew single digit support.

Newsom’s strong backing comes as he has positioned himself in the national limelight.

In July, he went on a tour of South Carolina, a key state in the Democratic nominating process. He’s also launched his own podcast, hosting conservative figures like Steve Bannon and Charlie Kirk. Further, he’s moved ahead with a redistricting plan in response to Texas’ recently passed congressional map that aims to give Republicans an advantage in the 2026 midterms.

Additionally, Newsom has taken to adopting Trump’s trademark style on social media, posting provocative memes and frequently writing in all caps.

In recent posts, he’s labeled Trump “DOZY DON” and the vice president as “JD ‘JUST DANCE’ VANCE.”

In his own social media posts, Trump has referred to the California governor as “Gavin Newscum” and accused him of “destroying the once Great State of California.”

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