PITTSBURGH — So much of baseball tends to be binary. Ball or strike. Out or safe. Win or loss.

Every once in a while, however, there are exceptions, seasons or events that don't fit one specific category.

What Bryan Reynolds did in 2025 feels that way, the Pirates' longest-tenured player producing numbers below his career standards ... but also without obvious explanation.

Did Reynolds suddenly see his skills diminish? Or was it merely a down year?

If you look under the hood, the smart bet would be the latter.

There are several reasons to believe Reynolds will be fine, and the Pirates obviously need the best version of the 30-year-old outfielder in 2026.

It's why they signed him to the largest contract in Pirates history in April 2023 and why it would be foolish for them to trade Reynolds this winter, selling an asset at its lowest point.

Believe this year was aberration. Trust Bryan Reynolds to be Bryan Reynolds.

The basic stuff

Before digging deeper into Reynolds' season, let's first establish a little bit of a baseline.

In 154 games, he slashed .245/.318/.402 for an OPS of .720. Reynolds finished with a career-high 38 doubles but also a career-low 16 homers. He had 57 walks (same as 2024) and struck out a career-high 173 times.

Looking at more advanced numbers, Reynolds was worth 1.4 wins above replacement (Baseball Reference) and had a wRC+ (100 is average) of 99, down from 3.6 and 118 in 2024.

Reynolds' splits offer some insight, as they indicate more of his struggles came while hitting left-handed.

— His OPS versus righties in 2025: .702

— That number for Reynolds' career: .818

Reynolds' OPS against left-handed pitching (.775) squared with his career mark (.772), so it was likely healthy or comfort with his left-handed swing.

Either that or he's some sort of baseball oddity who only ages from one side of the plate.

Quality of contact

Diving deeper leads to more confusion, which is why expecting Reynolds to bounce back in 2026 isn't unrealistic

Reynolds' average exit velocity in 2025 was 91.2 mph, a career-high. Furthermore, his barrel percentage rose from 9.6% to 10.1%. His hard-hit rate (46.0%) was the second-best of Reynolds' career. Lastly, Reynolds' average bat speed (72.2 mph) has also never been higher.

Sure doesn't look like someone who's washed.

Similar to more traditional numbers, there is one outlier here. Reynolds' launch angle dropped to 7.3 degrees, the lowest of his career, which begets a few additional thoughts:

— Please don't be the guy/girl who tries to explain an entire season via two degrees of launch angle.

— If Reynolds isn't driving the ball as much or as consistently as he'd like, yeah, it's probably not elevated as much.

The first three numbers here wouldn't still be strong if the last one mattered.

Pitches the problem?

Throughout his career, Reynolds has feasted on heat. He likes it. He rarely misses it. And it's often how you can tell he's in a good spot — if he clobbers 97-mph mistakes up in the zone.

There is at least some validity here when you look at how Reynolds' fared against fastballs compared to previous years:

— 2025: .297 average, .460 slugging

— 2024: .312 average, .511 slugging

— 2023: .282 average, .498 slugging

— 2022: .289 average, .526 slugging

A slugging percentage that drops 51% is certainly significant, but these numbers also require context.

Reynolds' expected batting average (.332) and expected slugging percentage (.590) were both really good, the two together are his best since that first All-Star season in 2021.

If actual stats don't match the expected, generally it's because a hitter is unlucky, which is another way to describe Reynolds' 2025.

Expected vs. actual 2.0

If you look at breaking balls or off-speed pitches, Reynolds didn't hit above .219 or slug higher than .383, which obviously isn't good enough for his lineup spot or the size of his contract.

However, both were again affected by the expected-versus-actual argument — involving all types of pitches, too.

The overall drop in what Reynolds experienced in expected slugging percentage (.466) versus his actual one (.402) was actually the most pronounced of his career, the difference in batting average (.271 to .245) ranking No. 2 behind the 2020 COVID season.

My simple point after a jungle of numbers: A lot of this was just bad luck.

Trajectory of season

While left-handed struggles, more strikeouts and rotten luck could define Reynolds' season, it's also worth examining two key periods on the calendar.

The first was most of April, when Reynolds was essentially relegated to designated hitter duties due to a shoulder injury. The second was how Reynolds performed after the All-Star break.

If you ignore the first 29 games, when Reynolds had a .624 OPS and a wRC+ of 70, the numbers look more like typical Reynolds; in 125 games from April 30 on, Reynolds had a .744 OPS and wRC+ of 106.

It's even more pronounced if you look at the 63 after break, when Reynolds' OPS (.816) was better than his career mark (.805).

Why does that matter?

Reynolds was close with former hitting coach Andy Haines, the two working out every winter in Nashville, Tenn. He's also someone who has traditionally leaned a lot on hitting coaches.

Matt Hague was new. There was almost assuredly a level of trust that had to be developed there, and it happened while Reynolds wasn't completely healthy.

There was tinkering that occurred with Reynolds' swing. Add a lack of lineup protection — something worth mentioning for the entire year, honestly — and you get a slow start that became something more.

What I don't think we're seeing, however, is the start of a larger trend, a decline or reasons why the Pirates should pursue a trade. Absolutely not.

Reynolds wanted to win here and deserves that opportunity. He's never been anything other than a total pro, averaging 152 games played over the past five years, and he's been worth between 2.4 and 3.6 bWAR since that 6.0 All-Star campaign in '21.

It's OK to say Reynolds didn't meet expectations in 2025 but also not to have a great reason for it. Stuff happens. Baseball can be weird.

It just means there's probably an ascent to the mean due in 2026.

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