Breaking down MLB's MVP, Cy Young Award and ROY races: Can Ohtani be unseated?
Published in Baseball
NEW YORK — Over the past five seasons, the only year that two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani didn’t win MVP of his respective league was 2022.
Topping Ohtani required a historic feat, as the Yankees’ Aaron Judge set an American League single-season record with 62 home runs that year.
Even then, Ohtani received two of the 30 first-place votes.
Needless to say, unseating Ohtani — only the second four-time MVP in MLB history — is incredibly difficult to do.
But it could happen this year, even as Ohtani delivers another prolific campaign for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
With only a month left in the regular season, let’s break down the MLB award races.
AL MVP
This award went to Judge in three of the past four seasons, with the exception being 2023 — Ohtani’s final year in the AL.
But Judge’s fractured rib (limiting him to only 59 games thus far) created a massive opening, and Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros has certainly taken advantage.
Entering play Thursday, Alvarez led the AL in average (.322), home runs (36) and OPS (1.051) — the last of which by more than 100 points.
He was tied with Baltimore’s Pete Alonso for the league lead in RBIs with 91.
With a strong finish, Alvarez could become the first player to win the Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012.
But even if Alvarez doesn’t finish as the AL’s leader in average, home runs and RBIs, he should be the overwhelming favorite to claim his first MVP, especially if the Astros hang on and win the woeful AL West.
Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. — a stupendous defensive shortstop who has 16 homers and 35 steals — actually boasts a higher WAR (6.2) than Alvarez (5.9), according to Baseball Reference’s wins-above-replacement calculation model.
That’s because Alvarez is primarily a designated hitter.
But the Royals began Thursday with a 59-75 record and nowhere near playoff contention, even in a pedestrian AL.
NL MVP
The aforementioned Ohtani is once again delivering unparalleled production.
He entered Thursday with a .288 average, 30 home runs, 80 RBIs and an NL-best .934 OPS as a hitter and an 8-2 record with a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings as a pitcher.
Add it all up, and Ohtani owns a 7.0 WAR for the season, per Baseball Reference.
But that pales in comparison to Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, whose offensive electricity and defensive wizardry has been worth 7.9 wins above replacement.
Crow-Armstrong — a former Mets prospect — is hitting .276 with 33 home runs, 83 RBIs, a .924 OPS and 32 stolen bases.
Defensively, the 24-year-old Crow-Armstrong’s 23 Outs Above Average (OAA) ranks in baseball’s 100th percentile.
Ohtani has not pitched in a game since July 3 due to nagging left knee soreness. He’s scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Friday, but his timeline to resume in-game pitching remains uncertain.
Because Ohtani doesn’t otherwise play defense, it would be difficult for him to catch up to Crow-Armstrong, in terms of WAR, if he doesn’t return to pitching soon.
FanGraphs’ WAR model is even more bullish on Crow-Armstrong (8.6) compared to Ohtani (7.1).
AL Cy Young Award
This race might be even more razor-thin.
The Yankees’ Cam Schlittler and Toronto’s Dylan Cease are both delivering award-worthy seasons, so the final four-plus weeks of play will ultimately decide this one.
Schlittler is 11-6 with an AL-best 2.16 ERA and 193 strikeouts in 158 innings over 27 starts. His 0.96 WHIP ranks second in the league.
Cease is 8-5 with a 2.37 ERA and an AL-leading 209 strikeouts in 144 1/3 innings over 24 starts. His 1.06 WHIP isn’t far behind.
The margin between these two All-Stars is so tight that Baseball Reference calculates both Schlittler and Cease with a 5.5 WAR. FanGraphs also has them tied with a 5.0 WAR.
As of Thursday, DraftKings gave Schlittler (-165) slightly better odds than Cease (+140).
Schlittler and Cease are both scheduled to pitch Friday night, so that could sway things one way or the other.
Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen (14-5, 2.95 ERA) and Boston’s Sonny Gray (16-4, 2.82 ERA) remain on the periphery.
NL Cy Young Award
For the first couple of months of the season, it looked like this would be a close contest in the pitching-rich NL.
Not anymore.
Milwaukee Brewers phenom Jacob Misiorowski is now the overwhelming favorite, going into Thursday night’s start at Citi Field with the lowest ERA (1.68), the most strikeouts (216) and the best WHIP (0.76) in all of baseball.
The flamethrowing 24-year-old also looks the part with a fastball that averages 100.6 mph and that he once dialed up to 105.5 mph — the fastest recorded pitch ever thrown by a starter.
Atlanta’s Chris Sale (12-9, 2.20 ERA), Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez (16-4, 2.62 ERA) and the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-7, 2.61 ERA) are all delivering excellent seasons.
But barring the unthinkable, they’re all competing for second place in this one.
AL Rookie of the Year
Voters will need to decide whether to go with a traditional rookie in Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle or one of the Japanese standouts who are living up to the billing in their first year in the majors.
McGonigle, a 22-year-old shortstop, is hitting .278 with 14 home runs, an .802 OPS and a terrific 6.0 WAR through 129 games, per Baseball Reference.
His 84 runs ranked fourth in the AL to begin Thursday.
McGonigle seems to have an edge over Chicago White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami, who is hitting .219 with 29 home runs and an .859 OPS in 98 games. The first baseman’s 2.2 WAR speaks to that gap.
Toronto third baseman Kazuma Okamoto is also delivering a strong debut season with 26 home runs, 74 RBIs and a 1.6 WAR but would be hard-pressed to move ahead of McGonigle or Murakami.
NL Rookie of the Year
The Mets have a pair of contenders in this category.
Nolan McLean (3.21 ERA, 168 strikeouts in 148 2/3 innings) continues to impress, while 23-year-old Carson Benge entered Thursday with a .281 average, 16 home runs, 19 stolen bases and nine outfield assists.
But neither is considered the favorite in this loaded field, where Cincinnati’s Sal Stewart and St. Louis’ JJ Wetherholt appear to be the front-runners.
Stewart began Thursday with 28 home runs, an MLB-leading 100 RBIs and an .806 OPS.
The first baseman boasted superior counting stats compared to Wetherholt, who had 17 homers, 48 RBIs and 14 stolen bases.
But Wetherholt, a slick-fielding second baseman, owned a significant advantage in WAR (4.8 on Baseball Reference) to Stewart (1.9), which should make this another case study on the weight of that relied-upon metric.
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