Mark Story: If North Carolina ever comes to the SEC, the league should bring on Duke, too

LEXINGTON, Ky. — It was reported last week by a writer for a website that covers University of North Carolina athletics that UNC is gearing up for a potential move to the Southeastern Conference.

“The SEC is where the Tar Heels are aiming,” Inside Carolina’s Adam Smith wrote.

Aside from Notre Dame, North Carolina is widely considered the most attractive realignment option that is not already a member of one of the two predominant leagues, the SEC or the Big Ten.

So if UNC, which has a relatively new president and will soon have a new athletic director, ultimately wants to leave the Atlantic Coast Conference for the SEC, the Tar Heels seem likely to find Greg Sankey holding that door wide-open.

“I think it’s going to happen. I think once we get to this next iteration (of expansion), North Carolina has always been the number one choice of many people in SEC circles,” said SEC Network personality Paul Finebaum on Monday on the Birmingham, Ala., radio show ”McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning.” “I think the bigger question is when, exactly, does it happen?”

As part of the agreement the ACC reached with Clemson and Florida State earlier this year so the two schools would drop lawsuits challenging the league’s exit fees and grant of media rights, the cost required for a university to leave the Atlantic Coast Conference will shrink from $165 million in the 2025-26 school year to $75 million starting in 2030-31.

If UNC is to switch leagues, that would suggest that around 2030 is when it is apt to happen.

For my money, it is who the Southeastern Conference — which has historically expanded in twos — might take as a realignment partner with North Carolina that is most intriguing.

In its prior expansions, the SEC has prioritized flagship universities from states that are contiguous to the existing Southeastern Conference footprint. That preference has brought Arkansas, South Carolina, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas into the SEC since 1992.

Among the teams the Southeastern Conference has added in modern expansions, only Texas A&M does not exactly fit that definition.

If the preference for flagship institutions from new states continues, the University of Virginia would seem the obvious candidate to accompany UNC from the ACC to the SEC.

In the current college sports moment, the opportunity to add football brands of national appeal has driven expansion. That is why the SEC accepted Oklahoma and Texas and the Big Ten went and got USC and UCLA, then Oregon and Washington.

Should the Southeastern Conference — and its TV partner, Disney/ESPN — continue to emphasize pigskin appeal, Clemson and Florida State are the two biggest college football brands that are not yet in either the Big Ten or the SEC.

Of course, the SEC could split the difference, adding a flagship university from a new state and one existing football titan from another.

There is a fourth option. Though it would be a radical departure from what has guided past SEC expansions, the league should take a hard look at bringing Duke along with archrival UNC — if the Tar Heels ultimately make the move.

Obviously, you are not getting a move-the-needle football brand if you add the Blue Devils. However, the Duke of recent vintage has been a respectable football program. Duke has gone a combined 26-13 over the past three seasons. In that span, the Blue Devils hold a 3-2 mark against power conference opponents from outside the ACC and have a 2-1 record in bowl games.

Though basketball has recently been all but irrelevant to power conference expansions, if you added Duke and North Carolina to join Kentucky in the SEC, the Southeastern Conference would then have three of the four enduring men’s hoops blue bloods (with Kansas being the exception).

Might being able to offer Disney/ESPN a continuation of the Blue Devils-Tar Heels hoops rivalry in a new league that also includes UK make SEC basketball matter financially in a way that has not previously been true?

Adding Duke — the No. 6-rated national university according to U.S. News and World Report — would give the SEC an academic heft it has not previously held.

Having Duke, Vanderbilt (18th) and Texas (30th) would place three of the top 30 ranked national universities within the SEC. Think of the potential benefits to the less academically acclaimed schools in the Southeastern Conference from those associations.

In terms of its overall athletics posture, Duke, a private research university, would not be as out of place in the SEC as it might initially seem.

Using figures for the 2023-24 fiscal year from the U.S. Department of Education’s Equity in Athletics database, Duke would enter the Southeastern Conference ranking 14th in the league in football spending (Kentucky is 13th); second in men’s basketball spending (UK is first); fourth in women’s basketball expenditures (Kentucky is eighth) and 13th in overall athletics budget (UK is sixth).

Obviously, adding Duke would not add another marquee football name to the SEC. Acquiring UNC and Duke but no one else would not bring two new states into the Southeastern Conference footprint.

Even so, if North Carolina is eventually going to come to the SEC, there is much that would recommend bringing Duke along with it.

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