Sam Farmer's Week 13 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 13 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 10-4 (.714) record. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, he is 119-59 (.669).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 12 would have been 7-7 (.500). For the season, his record against the spread is 91-87 (.511).

All times are Pacific.

Packers (7-3-1) at Lions (7-4)

Thursday, 10 a.m.

Line: Lions by 2 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The memory of getting worked over by the Packers in Week 1 hasn't left the Lions. Green Bay puts up a good fight, but injuries at running back and receiver make it tough to keep pace. Detroit, which can sputter offensively, controls this one with tempo and physicality.

Pick: Lions 27, Packers 20

Chiefs (6-5) at Cowboys (5-5-1)

Thursday, 1:30 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 3 1/2. O/U: 52 1/2.

The Chiefs finally broke through last week, but Dallas looks like the more complete team right now: healthier, faster on defense, and leaning into a locker room identity. Kansas City will land some shots, but the Cowboys rally at home in their traditional Thanksgiving game.

Pick: Cowboys 28, Chiefs 24

Bengals (3-8) at Ravens (6-5)

Thursday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 7. O/U: 51 1/2.

The Ravens have started slowly the last couple of games, but they keep finding ways to finish. Cincinnati has lost eight of nine but prepares for the return of Joe Burrow. Keep an eye on Baltimore, which is getting healthier in this stretch run.

Pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23

Bears (8-3) at Eagles (8-3)

Friday, noon.

Line: Eagles by 7. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Bears have been opportunistic, especially late in games, but that formula could hit a wall against a defense that's as problematic as Philadelphia's. Even with their secondary banged up, the Eagles have too much up front and aren't likely to lose two in a row.

Pick: Eagles 27, Bears 24

Rams (9-2) at Panthers (6-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Rams by 10 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Panthers play hard and have improved, but the Rams' offense is clicking early in games and using tempo well. L.A.'s defense is smothering too. Barring multiple turnovers, it's hard to see Carolina keeping pace with Matthew Stafford's efficiency.

Pick: Rams 28, Panthers 21

49ers (8-4) at Browns (3-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: 49ers by 5 1/2. O/U: 36 1/2.

The Browns are stout on defense, but the 49ers are getting healthier offensively and should take care of business on the road. The Browns have cycled through quarterbacks and might hang around for a while, but the visitors will pull away down the stretch.

Pick: 49ers 24, Browns 17

Cardinals (3-8) at Buccaneers (6-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 3. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Cardinals can be dangerous and give teams a scare almost every week, but the Buccaneers are healthier and returning home with urgency. Todd Bowles' defense should settle down enough to give Baker Mayfield some chances in the second half if he plays.

Pick: Buccaneers 24, Cardinals 20

Jaguars (7-4) at Titans (1-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jaguars by 6 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Tennessee competes, but the offensive limitations show up against faster, more disciplined defenses. Jacksonville looks like a playoff team when it can win at the line of scrimmage. Here, the Jaguars have more answers on both sides of the ball.

Pick: Jaguars 27, Titans 17

Texans (6-5) at Colts (8-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Colts by 4 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

After losing two of three, the Colts desperately need this one. Houston's defensive front has been outstanding, and Davis Mills' recent surge has muddied the quarterback picture in a good way. Close game, slight edge to the Indianapolis ground game.

Pick: Colts 23, Texans 20

Saints (2-9) at Dolphins (4-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Dolphins by 5 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

New Orleans has weapons but lacks consistency, especially at quarterback. Miami still has enough explosion to punish defensive mistakes and has surged recently with three wins in four games. The Saints have lost five of six, and only one of those losses was close.

Pick: Dolphins 27, Saints 20

Falcons (4-7) at Jets (2-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 2 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

The Jets look sharper with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback and the offense actually operates on schedule. Atlanta's defense is solid, but the offense without Drake London has sputtered. Another hard-to-watch slugfest, but the Jets make fewer mistakes.

Pick: Jets 23, Falcons 20

Vikings (4-7) at Seahawks (8-3)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 11 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Seattle's defense is improving and its passing game tends to start slow but eventually overwhelm teams. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having a phenomenal year. Minnesota can move the ball but struggles to finish drives without a reliable run threat.

Pick: Seahawks 28, Vikings 21

Raiders (2-9) at Chargers (7-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 9 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Chargers are coming off a bye and should be healthier, with time for self-scouting. Can that offensive line hold up? Las Vegas may get a temporary boost from staff changes, but the roster is still in transition and struggles to keep pace offensively.

Pick: Chargers 28, Raiders 17

Bills (7-4) at Steelers (6-5)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Bills by 3 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Pittsburgh is feisty but limited. Buffalo is more desperate and has the better quarterback, better weapons, and is more sound top to bottom. The Steelers' defense has been inconsistent and prone to breakdowns, as we saw last Sunday against Chicago.

Pick: Bills 26, Steelers 20

Broncos (9-2) at Commanders (3-8)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 6 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Denver's defense has quietly become one of the league's toughest, and Bo Nix is doing enough when he can limit the turnovers. Washington gets some key players back, but the Broncos simply have more late-game poise.

Pick: Broncos 24, Commanders 20

Giants (2-10) at Patriots (10-2)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Patriots by 7 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Giants play hard and have been creative, but they continue to crumble late. New England's defense is good enough to punish mistakes, and Drake Maye has been mostly excellent and bounces back strong from his rare mistakes.

Pick: Patriots 23, Giants 17