Fantasy football Thursday and Friday: Start, sit and sleepers
Published in Football
Here are my fantasy football best bets for Week 13's Thanksgiving Day and Friday matchups:
GREEN BAY AT DETROIT
Obvious starters: Josh Jacobs (GB), Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET).
Who to start: Jordan Love (GB) deserves streaming consideration against a defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including multiple TD passes in eight of 11 games this season. Both Romeo Doubs (GB) and Christian Watson (GB) have WR3/flex upside against a defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including 11 TDs in the last seven games.
Who to sit: Emanuel Wilson (GB) remains TD-dependent when Jacobs is healthy. Matthew Golden (GB) remains a boom-or-bust candidate with three-or-fewer receptions in four of his last five games. There are better options this week than the Packers D/ST on the road against an offense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. Jared Goff (DET) faces a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, including only one TD pass in the last four games. David Montgomery (DET) is TD-dependent against a defense allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Jameson Williams (DET) is a boom-or-bust candidate against a defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. The Lions D/ST faces an offense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Sleeper(s): Luke Musgrave (GB) faces a defense that has allowed at least 65 yards or a TD to tight ends in five of the last six games. Ross Dwelley (DET) is the next man up at tight end for the Lions with Brock Wright out (neck) and Sam LaPorta on the IR (back).
KANSAS CITY AT DALLAS
Obvious starters: Patrick Mahomes (KC), Travis Kelce (KC), Rashee Rice (KC), CeeDee Lamb (DAL), George Pickens (DAL), Javonte Williams (DAL), Jake Ferguson (DAL).
Who to start: Xavier Worthy (KC) has flex appeal against a defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Both Isiah Pacheco (KC) and Kareem Hunt (KC) have flex appeal against a defense that has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt since Week 7 (according to Fantasy Pros).
Who to sit: JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) has three-or-fewer targets in seven straight games. The Chiefs D/ST faces an offense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. I’m fading Dak Prescott (DAL) against a defense that has only allowed multiple TD passes in three of 11 games this season.
Sleeper: Marquise Brown (KC) has flex appeal in deeper leagues against a defense that has allowed 18 TDs to wide receivers in 11 games this season.
CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE
Obvious starters: Joe Burrow (CIN), Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), Chase Brown (CIN), Lamar Jackson (BAL), Derrick Henry (BAL), Zay Flowers (BAL).
Who to start: Mark Andrews (BAL) has scored at least one TD in three of the last four games and faces a defense allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends. The Ravens D/ST deserves streaming consideration at home as the third-highest scoring defense in fantasy since Week 9.
Who to sit: Samaje Perine (CIN) is TD-dependent in his return from an ankle injury. Both Noah Fant (CIN) and Mike Gesicki (CIN) are TD-dependent against a defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends — the Ravens haven’t allowed a TD to the position since Week 6. Rashod Bateman (BAL) remains TD-dependent with two-or-fewer receptions in eight of his nine games this season. DeAndre Hopkins (BAL) hasn’t topped 20 yards in a game since Week 5 and hasn’t scored a TD since Week 2.
Sleeper(s): Andrei Iosivas (CIN) has flex appeal with Tee Higgins out (concussion) against a defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Isaiah Likely (BAL) faces a defense that has allowed 13 TDs to tight ends in the last nine games.
CHICAGO AT PHILADELPHIA
Obvious starters: Jalen Hurts (PHI), Saquon Barkley (PHI), Dallas Goedert (PHI).
Who to start: D’Andre Swift (CHI) maintains RB2/flex upside as the overall RB17 in most fantasy formats through 12 weeks. Rome Odunze (CHI) maintains WR3/flex upside as the overall WR13 in standard formats (WR18 in PPR) through 12 weeks with at least nine targets in three of the last five games. Caleb Williams (CHI) is the overall QB2 since Week 9 (behind only Josh Allen). DJ Moore (CHI) is the overall WR8 in standard formats (WR19 in PPR) since Week 8 with at least 73 yards or a TD in three of the last five games. AJ Brown (PHI) maintains WR3/flex upside against a defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers. DeVonta Smith (PHI) also maintains WR3/flex upside if he’s active (shoulder/chest/illness). The Eagles D/ST is averaging the seventh-most fantasy points per game (8.4) since Week 7.
Who to sit: Colston Loveland (CHI) faces a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. The Bears D/ST faces an offense allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. Luther Burden III (CHI) remains a boom-or-bust candidate with three-or-fewer receptions in nine of his 10 games this season. Tank Bigsby (PHI) remains TD-dependent with Barkley healthy. Jahan Dotson (PHI) remains a boom-or-bust candidate unless Smith is out.
Sleeper: Kyle Monangai (CHI) has flex appeal as the overall RB13 in standard formats (RB17 in PPR) since Week 7 with a TD in four of the last six games.
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