Greg Cote's Week 16 NFL picks

Enjoyed one of our best all-round weeks of the year last week at 11-5 straight-up and 10-6 vs. the spread. Missed only two of 16 games both ways. We nailed another Upset of the Week (”Aawwk!”) with Broncos over Packers, and had a big four other ‘dog-with-points on covers by the Falcons, Chargers, Saints and Colts. It’s been an unusually tough season, led by the fall of the mighty like Chiefs and Ravens, and the rise of the meek like Bears and Jaguars. But our four-game gain ATS last week gave us renewed hope of still climbing up on over the plus-side for the season. Yikes, but only three weeks remain. Oh, the drama! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Seahawks (11-3, +1 1/2) over Rams (11-3), 23-20.]

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— Week 15: 11-5, .688 overall; 10-6, .625 against the spread.

— Season: 146-77, .655 overall; 108-112-3, .491 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 16 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

PACKERS (9-4-1) at BEARS (10-4)

Line: CHI by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: GB, 27-24.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Saturday, Fox.

There are no fewer than eight Week 16 matchups (including Rams-Seahawks Thursday) with Game of the Week heft. ‘Tis the season. Playoff ramifications will do that. GOTW committee was in a tither and a dither! But this NFC North grudge match and rare Saturday prime timer won out after much filibustering and a fifth-ballot tiebreaker. Green Bay-Chicago winner will take the division lead. Winner also will clinch a playoff spot if Lions lose. I like the Pack, jack. Think Josh Jacobs will run big on a leaky Chitown ground D. Give Gee Bees an edge defensively, too, though diminished by Micah Parsons’ absence. Cheesetown is on a 12-2 run in this rivalry, including a seven-point win two weeks ago. Pack also has won its last six trips in a row to The Soldier. Hardly feels like it but: Upset!

UPSET OF THE WEEK

CHARGERS (10-4) at COWBOYS (6-7-1)

Line: DAL by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: LAC, 30-27.

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “Deck the halls with boughs of holly. Fa la la la la, la la la laawwk!” Yes, Dallas has proved appreciably better at home than away; still, the wrong team is favored here. Cowboys have a 0.6% playoff shot, least of any team not mathematically dead yet. They’re done. LAC has real stakes and can clinch playoffs with win and losses by Texans and Colts. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens will make this a shootout ... but so will Dallas’ defense, to Justin Herbert and the Bolts’ great benefit. Boys’ D ranks 31st in points allowed. (Um, there are only 32 teams.) “Still calling Cowboys America’s Team in 2025 is like still calling the Model T America’s Car,” notes U-Bird. “Model Taaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 16:

Our Thursday night pick was @Seahawks (11-3, +1 1/2) over Rams (11-3), 23-20.

Eagles (9-5, -6 1/2) over @Commanders (4-10), 24-20: Philly can clinch NFC East with a win (or a Dallas loss Sunday), and should do so in Saturday’s early game. Birds have banged-up O-line, but Saquon Barkley is heating up lately and trend should continue here. Still, the home dog is getting a lot of points for division rivalry. Washington shut down Jayden Daniels for year but last week’s road win at Giants showed surrender flag isn’t waving.

Bills (10-4, -10 1/2) over @Browns (3-11), 28-16: Buffalo, buoyed by huge rally triumph in New England, can clinch playoffs with win here if Texans and Colts also lose. More important, Bills still chase AFC East title and won’t let lowly Browns get in way. Josh Allen keeps showing he can beat anything ... including his own middling defense.

Chiefs (6-8, -3) over @Titans (2-12), 19-13: Both teams eliminated from playoff contention. One of those is shocking. K.C.’s ouster coupled with Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending knee surgery seems the end of a dynasty. We’ll see. For now, Chiefs are on a 1-5 skid, are also 1-5 on the road — and I still cannot see them losing, even with Gardner Minshew taking snaps. Titans might be worst team in league, a team that has lost 11 straight home games. Chiefs’ defense carries the day.

@Saints (4-10, -4 1/2) over Jets (3-11), 23-14: Both were eliminated from playoff chase during the Carter Administration. N’Awlins and Tyler Shough have been better than awful lately, though, while Jets have remained in that bog. And green Brady Cook in at QB hasn’t helped.

Vikings (6-8, -3) over @Giants (2-12), 23-19: Both eliminated, but NYG is still alive for the No. 1 draft pick — with eight straight losses suggesting that’s the goal. Don’t much like the Vikes, either, and a Giants win here would surprise by only a smidgen. But J.J. McCarthy has looked decent lately, raising his flagging stock. And I trust Minny’s defense a bit more.

Buccaneers (7-7, -3) over @Panthers (7-7), 24-20: This one’s for the lead in the NFC South, although two 7-7 teams vying for a division title is akin to Adam Sandler and Rob Schneider as finalists for an Oscar. Carolina is wildly inconsistent; Tampa Bay is the better team and has dominated this series lately but hasn’t been good the past month-plus. That’s why Todd Bowles just delivered the most mild-mannered, profanity-laced postgame rant in coaching history. Let’s see if it worked.

Bengals (4-10, -4 1/2) over @Dolphins (6-8), 27-16: Two teams eliminated from the playoff chase can make for a snoozy afternoon, but here each team’s quarterback drama gives this matchup some odd sizzle. The Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa in favor of barely drafted seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers, while Bengals’ Joe Burrow last week sounded morosely like a guy who either wants out of Cincinnati or out of football altogether. I expect the elite talent Burrow to bounce back big from being shut out last week. I do not expect much from Ewers, even against a subpar Cincy D. Just as I think Fins coach Mike McDaniel was being silly to say he’s going with the QB who gives Miami “the best chance to win.” Doubting that seriously. Not even sure if Mikey Mac believes that. The switch is nothing but a popularity grab. Miami became a much bigger underdog after the change was announced. (No duh.) As for the game itself, De’Von Achane vs. Cincy’s moribund run-stopping was a definite Miami edge, but one diminished because Ewers starting will enable Bengals to stack the front vs. the run. Also see the strong likelihood of a declarative rebound game by Burrow. Bet line feels a bit fat. Fins at home getting 4 1/2 vs. a bad foe is tempting. But then the reality hits: Joe Burrow vs. Quinn Ewers.

@Broncos (12-2, -3) over Jaguars (10-4), 27-17: Another strong GOTW contender, with both teams a surprise — Jax more so. Denver has won 11 in a row, is playoff-clinched and locks up division with a win here and a Chargers loss. J’ville has won five straight and clinches playoffs by winning this if Colts or Texans lose. Relatively mild weather expected is a break for Jags, but Denver has won 12 straight home games and is a different animal at Mile High.

Falcons (5-9, -3) over @Cardinals (3-11), 31-24: Both are eliminated, but Arizona’s in sadder shape, on a six-game skid and 1-6 in the unsafe haven of home. ATL has lost five straight trips to the desert but won’t make it six. Falcs’ Kirk Cousins is coming off his best game and should have top WR Drake London back after four games out, and Bijan Robinson will shred Cardbirds’ run D.

@Lions (8-6, -7) over Steelers (8-6), 34-17: Yet another GOTW-caliber matchup as two teams fight for playoffs. Pittsburgh narrowly leads AFC North but cannot clinch this week. Detroit is scrambling for an NFC wild card and must keep winning and likely get some help. The slightly more desperate team is the one at home, and the one with the NFL’s No. 1 -scoring offense. Give me that team, please, especially with Pitt’s D likely missing T.J. Watt again. (Oh, and Aaron Rodgers: Watch your kneecaps.)

@Texans (9-5, -14 1/2) over Raiders (2-12), 30-10: Houston has won six straight and is playoff-bound but cannot clinch this week. Vegas is alive for the No. 1 draft pick and playing like it with eight straight losses. Raiders may have Geno Smith back, but pity any QB facing a great Texans defense behind LV’s sieve of an O-line. HOU’s ground game will run wild. Bet-line seems big, but Vegas has lost five in a row by 14-plus as Pete Carroll wonders what in hell he signed up for.

@Ravens (7-7, -3) over Patriots (11-3), 26-24: Sunday night stage has yet another GOTW-worthy duel. Baltimore is alive in AFC North race, needs help and could get it majorly this week with a win here and if Steelers lose in Detroit. New England is playoff-bound and is in with a win here or a loss by Texans or Colts — but also now in fight to hold onto AFC East lead. Major stakes both ways and our toughest Week 16 tilt to pick, which is why I’m hedging on Patriots with points. Pats have been the better side all season but I’m rolling with the home team in prime time in what feels like an upset but isn’t for a reason.

49ers (10-4, -6 1/2) over @Colts (8-6), 24-20: Monday nighter also had GOTW cred ... before Daniel Jones got hurt and 44-year-old Philip Rivers took over an Indy team now on a four-game skid. San Fran clinches playoff ticket with win or a loss by Lions. Colts are still alive but need a Christmas miracle. Still, I give Indy a medium shot for an outright upset and like Nags getting this many points at home, where they’re on an 8-1 run. Jonathan Taylor and Colts’ under-regarded defense will keep it close.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of Wednesday afternoon.)