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Gerry Dulac: 'I wouldn't say it's easier': Evaluation of QB prospects continues to mystify modern NFL teams

Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on

Published in Football

PITTSBURGH — In this era of frantically trying to find the next franchise quarterback, it should not be surprising that no position has been targeted with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft more often than quarterback. And that is not expected to change this year, either.

A total of 35 quarterbacks have been selected No. 1 overall in league history, a list that includes Terry Bradshaw in 1970. But, since 2000, 19 quarterbacks have been taken in the top spot, a number that is expected to grow when Fernando Mendoza gets selected with the first pick April 23.

It’s not just the No. 1 overall pick. In the past 25 years, 75 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round, including Ben Roethlisberger (2004) and Kenny Pickett (2022) by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Some teams have been heavily invested in the process. The Washington Commanders, for example, have drafted five in the first round in that time. The Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars have each selected four.

Every team is looking for a good, young quarterback. Drafting one is the hard part. But, if they are going to find one, odds are it will be in the first round.

In 2025, 26 of the 32 teams had starting quarterbacks who were former first-round draft choices, including Aaron Rodgers. Two of those — Seattle’s San Darnold and New England’s Drake Maye — ended up in the Super Bowl.

“First of all, I just say it’s a tough position to play, just in general,” Atlanta Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski said. “So, we, as coaches and clubs, we want to do all that we can to insulate those players and put them in a system, put players around them to allow for development of young players. I think there’s countless examples of players that they don’t develop and their development takes time. It could take seasons.”

Even though more of the wide-open college game has crept into the NFL — and mobile quarterbacks have become more of the norm — finding the right one remains a difficult task. It hasn’t gotten any easier.

Some quarterbacks operate in spread offenses with simplified reads in college, while NFL systems require more complex decision-making. Most don’t line under center, a prerequisite in the NFL.

“I’ve said this publicly — it’s the hardest position to play in sports,” said Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio. “It’s not like, ‘Well, what you did in college is automatically going to translate over.’”

That’s why a lot of teams are looking at a quarterback’s experience more so than ever before when making their evaluations. Mendoza is a classic example. He not only has the measurables and performance as quarterback of national champion Indiana, but he also started 34 games in his college career.

Bo Nix, Denver’s first-round pick in 2024, started 61 games in college. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Cam Ward, started 57. Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in 2024, started 55. Six other former first-round picks — Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson — all had at least 34 starts.

The Steelers have little intention of taking a quarterback with their No. 1 pick because they don’t believe there is another first-round quarterback after Mendoza. But one of the reasons they like Miami’s Carson Beck is he has started 43 games, counting his time when he won a national title at Georgia.

Make no mistake, the transfer portal has added another layer to the evaluation process.

“Well, they’ve attended, like, seven schools, you know,” Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider said. “They’ve moved around more than [most guys their age]. All these guys are just slightly more advanced in terms of their experience when guys we had before, where they would come out of college and you worried about you’re moving from South Bend to Seattle. What’s that going to look like?

 

“What’s that adjustment period going to be like for you personally, away from the professional part of how you’re going to adapt to the National Football League? But now these guys are like, OK, they’re living in Eugene, and they’re living in College Station, and they’re just more ready for the off-field experience.”

Steelers general manager Omar Khan thinks it has made the process of finding a franchise quarterback just that much more difficult.

“I wouldn’t say it’s easier,” Khan said. “I’d say the dynamic that changes when players start transferring from school to school, you have to dig deep and understand who’s coaching them at this one school versus the other school. You know, the scheme, who’s around them, the reasons behind it. So, yeah, it’s a little more challenging.”

More so than any position, quarterbacks are unique, possessing a leadership quality that makes others want to listen to them, follow them. It’s why teams often try to determine if a player is born to be a quarterback or made to be one.

“I still think it’s understanding what’s inside of a person and trying to get to know them,” said New England Patriots vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf, who drafted Maye third overall in 2024. “The quarterback position is so difficult to play, not only in college, but at our level as well. And when you’re trying to identify what makes a guy tick, what kind of leader is he going to be, how tough is he, how is he going to react in adverse situations, I still think that’s the hardest thing to evaluate, college to pro.”

Darnold is the poster child for quarterbacks who needed time to develop or play in a different system. Eight years after he was the third overall pick in the 2018 draft, he led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. It didn’t hurt he was surrounded by better players with the Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings.

Same with Baker Mayfield, a former No. 1 overall pick of the Browns who has found new life in Tampa Bay.

Maybe there is hope for Pickett. He was the 20th overall pick in 2022, started 24 games over two seasons with the Steelers and now is on his fifth NFL team.

“The big thing is, what are they being coached to do, what are they being asked to do and how much of the system with which they play in can transfer over into our league,” said Caserio, who drafted C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick in 2023 and saw him lead the Texans to three consecutive postseason appearances. “The situational element is probably more magnified and more pronounced — third down, red area, end-of-game, end-of-half situations. Those happen more in our league than they do in college football.

“You can go look for them in college football, but a quarterback a lot of times isn’t really put in those situations. But if you have the ability to evaluate them through that lens, then that’s certainly valuable.”

Every team wants a good, young quarterback. Finding him is another matter.

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© 2026 the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Visit www.post-gazette.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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