DEL MAR, Calif. — The paddock at Del Mar was packed on Monday with owners, trainers and racing officials. The drinks were flowing and the hors d'oeuvres nearby. The reason? They were drawing post positions for the 14 Breeders' Cup races that will be held Friday and Saturday.

NBC's Britney Eurton and Nick Luck moved through all the races efficiently. When it came time for the Juvenile for 2-year-old males, Eurton concluded by saying the winner of this race would be the Kentucky Derby favorite.

Favorite yes, winner, not likely.

In 41 runnings of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which is the ninth race on Friday's card, only two horses have been able to pull off the Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double. Street Sense did it in 2006-2007 and Nyquist in 2015-2016.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won the Juvenile six times and the Kentucky Derby six times. But never with the same horse. He won last year's Juvenile with Citizen Bull, who finished 15th in the Kentucky Derby. Citizen Bull will be running in the Dirt Mile on Saturday.

"I think a lot of them [that win the Juvenile] are early maturing types," Baffert said. "Sometimes you can win the Juvenile with a precocious kind of horse. … Citizen Bull won it but he had distance limitations."

The Juvenile is run at 1 1/16 miles, while the Derby is 1 1/4 miles.

"The thing is a mile and 1 1/16 miles are close," Baffert said. "But when they go 1 1/8 miles that's what separates them."

Citizen Bull was a $675,000 purchase for a collection of owners, headed by Tom Ryan, who gives Baffert a bucketful of money and sends him to the sales to buy the best horses, who Baffert then trains. Part of Baffert's success is his ability to look at a horse and tell if they are any good. He has won the Triple Crown twice, in 2012 with American Pharoah and 2015 with Justify. Neither raced in the Juvenile.

"I think there is a big misunderstanding between precocity and speed," Ryan said. "Some horses just have that precocity. They are mentally forward or physically forward. They have the foundation to take the training early to develop into a Breeders' Cup horse. It's really a very narrow window. You have to be winning 2-year-old races in late July or early August, somewhere in the time frame, to be a Breeders' Cup 2-year-old."

The favorite for Friday's Juvenile is undefeated Ted Noffey, who is trained by Todd Pletcher. He ran his first race on Aug. 2, then won Grade 1s on Sept. 1 and Oct. 4. His morning line is 4-5. The colt was a $650,000 purchase.

The second favorite at 5-2 is undefeated Brant, who is trained by Baffert. The colt won his first race on July 26 at Del Mar and then won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 7. He was a bit more pricey when owner Amr Zedan purchased him as a 2-year-old in training for $3 million.

The Ryan consortium also has a colt in the eight-horse field, Litmus Test, a son of Nyquist who was an $875,000 purchase. He ran his first race on Aug. 16, which he won, but finished fourth and third in his next two races. He is listed at 15-1.

"Not all horses have that early maturity to be there," Ryan said. "Sometimes the ones that are there are so mature, then they hit their ceiling. You look at a horse like Citizen Bull, he was a mature horse. He won two Grade 1s last year and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. And we tried to stretch him out but realistically he was good only up to a mile. That was realistically his right trip.

"If you try and stretch them out too far, they'll tell you quickly enough what their preferred distance is. A lot of horses just don't want to go 1 1/4 miles. It takes a very unique horse to be able to do it. … Having a horse at the top of his game as a 2-year-old to be a champion and then to be able to repeat that again as a 3-year-old is very unusual. Only a really great horse can do it."

Triple Crown winner American Pharoah ran his first race on Aug. 9, where he finished fifth, and followed that with two Grade 1 wins in September. He was supposed to run in the Juvenile but he suffered a deep bruise in his left front hoof. Baffert scratched him from the race.

"Pharoah would have won it if I didn't have to scratch him," Baffert said.

Justify did not run his first race until Feb. 18 as a 3-year-old.

"[The Juvenile winner] is the best 2-year-old right now," Baffert said. "But that doesn't mean anything because they change. We have some we like who haven't even run yet. We're just focused on 2-year-olds. We're not thinking Derby right now. We're thinking Breeders' Cup glory."

Ryan was asked when he starts to think about having a horse that could win the Derby.

"When he tells me," Ryan said pointing at Baffert.

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