Poll: Two Republicans and Swalwell top the pack of 2026 CA governor candidates

Nicole Nixon, The Sacramento Bee on Dec 4, 2025

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

In the race for California governor, a new poll shows two Republicans and a recently-announced Democratic candidate topping the field.

The Emerson College survey shows Chad Bianco, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County, with support from 13% of voters. Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, and Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, who got into the race last month, both have 12%. Former Rep. Katie Porter had 11% while the rest of the declared candidates pulled single-digit support.

But six months out from the June top-two primary, the largest group of California voters, 31%, remains undecided about the race.

“As California turns to its next major statewide election after the passing of Proposition 50, no clear leader for the 2026 gubernatorial primary has yet emerged,” said Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling.

The poll surveyed 1,000 active California voters between Dec. 1-2 and has a “credibility interval” — similar to a margin of error — of +/- 3 percentage points.

Kimball said the results show divisions among voters affiliated with a political party in the early stages of the governor’s race.

“Upon entering the race, Swalwell splits the Democratic vote with Porter, 20% supporting Swalwell and 17% Porter,” he said. “Republican voters are split between Bianco and Hilton, at 33% and 30%, while a plurality of independents, 45%, are undecided.

”Despite a crowded Democratic field in the race, 28% of Democratic voters remain undecided, along with 24% of Republicans.

Newsom’s approval rating and 2028 potential

After his victory on Prop. 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom had his highest net approval rating from an Emerson College poll of 2025, according to the survey.

It showed 47% of voters said they approved of Newsom’s job performance and 39% disapproved — an eight-point difference in the governor’s favor.

It’s a vast improvement for Newsom from an April Emerson poll, when his approval rating was underwater by nine points.

“Newsom’s strongest group is voters under 40, who approve of the governor by a 21-point margin,” Kimball said.

The outgoing governor also leads the field of potential Democratic presidential candidates in 2028 with 36% support, a 13-point improvement for Newsom since August. Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg had 16%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., had 13% and former Vice President Kamala Harris had 9% support among Democratic voters polled.

Vice President JD Vance topped the potential 2028 Republican field with 52% of GOP voters saying they would support him. He was followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 11% and Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 10%.

Just over a third of voters, 34%, listed the economy as the top issue facing California, followed by 25% who named housing affordability.

Two-thirds of poll respondents said California’s economy is in a “fair” or “poor” state, and 51% said Newsom is responsible for the state of the economy, with 27% blaming President Donald Trump.

____